NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

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Apr 262016
 

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1B
Actual: -3B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.980
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1030:02 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1030:17 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.020 – 1031:39 (2 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.999 – 1039 (9 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.017 – 1047 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.974 – 1122 (52 min)
43 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.994 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.019 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.009 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Stable long spike initially crossed the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot, backed off a bit and then rebounded for a quick 2nd peak to the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have seen a low slippage fill and allowed up to 25 ticks to be captured, but a prudent target would have captured about 15 ticks with the resistance levels. Then it stepped lower to nearly reach the LOD in a little less than 1 hr.

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.7.2016

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Apr 252016
 

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4_7_2016

4/7/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 7B
Actual: 12B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.968
1st Peak @ 1.944 – 1030:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.990 – 1037 (7 min)
46 ticks

Pullback to 1.969 – 1043 (13 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.956 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.953 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.945 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA)

Notes: Short spike hit the 200 SMA / R2 Mid Pivot and recoiled instantly. Even a profit target would not have been setup in time. Look to exit with a few ticks as it was in an overall uptrend and crossed several layers of support in the move. Nice reversal to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

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Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 20B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.801 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.780 – 1030:14 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.815 – 1031:47 (2 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.790 – 1035 (5 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.827 – 1054 (24 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.792 – 1119 (49 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.797 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.800 – 3 ticks (1.796 likely exit – 1 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.814 (just above the HOD) and 1.823 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Very small spike initially of only 15 ticks stalled and hovered for 9 sec before reversing strongly offering a warning to exit. Move the stop up to a few ticks in the red or close near breakeven. After that it cycled higher for a 2nd and Final peak with large reversals in between.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016

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Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_17_2016

3/17/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -9B
Actual: -1B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.878
1st Peak @ 1.855 – 1030:02 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.885 – 1041 (11 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.830 – 1056 (26 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.849 – 1136 (66 min)
19 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.912 – 1256 (146 min)
82 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.866 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.856 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.855 (just below the PP Pivot) and 1.844 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Small spike fell to the PP Pivot, hovered and reversed. Due to the strong support of the PP Pivot, exit at first sign of hovering or a bounce from the low point. Then a reversal to the 100 SMA followed by a 2nd peak to the S1 Pivot. Then a slow developing reversal to the R2 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

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Apr 022016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -51B
Actual: -57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.752 – 1030:05 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.772 – 1030:53 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.734 – 1035 (5 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.782 – 1044 (14 min)
48 ticks

Pullback to 1.737 – 1150 (80 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.774 – 1205 (95 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.767 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.754 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Moderate spike with a nice 2nd peak to target the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD. Then a strong and quick reversal to the SMA cluster. Another cycle panned out in the next 1.5 hrs.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2015

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Mar 242016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -49B
Actual: -48B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.649
1st Peak @ 1.675 – 1030:02 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.654 – 1033 (3 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.681 – 1038 (8 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.645 – 1043 (13 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.695 – 1111 (41 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.658 – 1125 (55 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.659 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.674 – 15 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.683 (above the HOD) or 1.691 (just above the PP Pivot) – move to 1.674 (above the OOD)

Notes: No slippage fill due to the small move. Then ample opportunity to exit at the OOD. Then it cycled a few times to step to a 2nd and final peak with nice reversals in between. The 3 candle bottom on the major SMAs at 1043-5 offered a nice buy opportunity.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

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Mar 242016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -125B
Actual: -117B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.790
1st Peak @ 1.751 – 1030:00 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.770 – 1031:26 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.747 – 1047 (17 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.761 – 1049 (19 min)
14 ticks

Double Bottom @ 1.747 – 1103 (33 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.777 – 1124 (54 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.774 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.745 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move about 10 ticks higher

Notes: Quick move fell 39 ticks, then hovered mostly within 8 ticks of the low to allow 15-20 ticks profit before reversing 19 ticks in the next min. Then it used the falling 13 SMA as resistance to fall for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot. After a double bottom a nice reversal to the S2 Pivot / 100 SMA.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016

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Mar 132016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_18_2016

2/18/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -154B
Actual: -158B
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.898
1st Peak @ 1.877 – 1030:33 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.911 – 1046 (16 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 1.877 – 1124 (54 min)
34 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: After a big move on at 10:29:59, we saw no departure more than 10 ticks until 18 sec after the release, so cancel the order.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

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Mar 082016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -82B
Actual: -70B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.051
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1031:17 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 2.029 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.983 – 1128 (58 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 2.003 – 1141 (71 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.041 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.008 – 33 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.008 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Fairly Stable short spike offered a rare no slippage fill then would have targeted the S1 Pivot nicely after about 1.5 min. After a small reversal, it turned into a slow downtrend to gather another 24 ticks and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

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Feb 232016
 

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -170B
Actual: -152B
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.988
1st Peak @ 2.003 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.983 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.026 – 1042 (12 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.005 – 1049 (19 min)
21 ticks

Double Top @ 2.026 – 1054 (24 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1113 (43 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.999 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 2.001 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.020 – just above the S1 Mid Pivot

Notes: Dull move to barely get a fill long then hover around the fill point for 17 sec for an exit near breakeven. After a reversal it climbed for a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks as it eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then a double top and reversal.

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