NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9.3.2015

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Jan 312016
 

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9_3_2015

9/3/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 88B
Actual: 94B
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.674
1st Peak @ 2.700 – 1030:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 2.640 – 1030:32 (1 min)
60 ticks

Pullback to 2.674 – 1031:17 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 2.645 – 1047 (17 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.724 – 1149 (79 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 2.701 – 1200 (90 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.689 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.692 -3 ticks (likely exit 2.688 – 1 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.725 (just above the R2 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Small reaction that recoiled immediately. In this scenario look to exit quickly as it is unusual and likely to continue to reverse. It was also odd that it reacted long to a supply sided result.

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9.10.2015

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Jan 312016
 

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9_10_2015

9/10/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 76B
Actual: 68B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.682
1st Peak @ 2.721 – 1030:01 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 2.700 – 1035 (5 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.733 – 1046 (16 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 2.714 – 1054 (24 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 2.732 – 1112 (42 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 2.714 – 1139 (69 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.692 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.720 – 28 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.719 and 2.737 (just above the R2 Mid and R2 Pivots)

Notes: Due to a small long spike at :59 sec, you would have had a no slippage fill just before the true spike happened. As it hovered around the R2 Mid Pivot for 25 sec, exit there with 20-28 ticks. Nice 2nd peak opportunity to buy on the 35 or 36 bar with the 13 EMA approaching and look to target 25 ticks.

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9.17.2015

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Jan 312016
 

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9_17_2015

9/17/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 70B
Actual: 73B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 2.632
1st Peak @ 2.668 – 1031:48 (2 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 2.652 – 1044 (14 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.673 – 1118 (48 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 2.651 – 1211 (101 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.645 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.667 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.665 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA)

Notes: Tripwire to cancel as a large premature short spike happened at 1029:55. Still it would have been a safe trade and allowed about 20 ticks to be captured if traded.

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015

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Jan 312016
 

NG 10-15 (1 Min) 9_24_2015

9/24/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 95B
Actual: 106B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.552
1st Peak @ 2.521 – 1030:00 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 2.550 – 1100 (30 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 2.534 – 1119 (49 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.533 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.524 – 9 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.506 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Smaller than average move fell to stall and hover just below the S2 Pivot. As it hovered for 16 sec look to exit quickly. Then a nice reversal to the 50 SMA .

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10.1.2015

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Feb 012016
 

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10_1_2015

10/1/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 98B
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 2.494
1st Peak @ 2.502 – 1030:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 2.482 – 1030:39 (1 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order on a dull move that only yielded 8 ticks then backed off.

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10.8.2015

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Feb 012016
 

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10_8_2015

10/8/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 95B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.505
1st Peak @ 2.530 – 1030:02 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 2.505 – 1030:45 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 2.519 – 1032 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 2.499 – 1047 (17 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 2.519 – 1057 (27 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.517 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.529 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.541 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Smaller than average move climbed to hover short of the R2 mid Pivot with no discernible barrier of support. As it hovered for about 20 sec, look to exit quickly with 5-12 ticks.

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10.15.2015

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Feb 012016
 

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10_15_2015

10/15/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 92B
Actual: 100B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.573
1st Peak @ 2.496 – 1031:42 (2 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 2.518 – 1035 (5 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.458 – 1140 (70 min)
115 ticks

Reversal to 2.473 – 1143 (73 min)
15 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.540 (short)
Slippage: 23 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.497 – 43 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.515 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Large move with more slippage as is normal. A profit target just below the PP Pivot would be prudent as it also hovered just below the PP Pivot for over 30 sec. Then it stepped lower for the next hour.

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10.22.2015

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Feb 012016
 

NG 11-15 (1 Min) 10_22_2015

10/22/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 81B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.413
1st Peak @ 2.435 – 1030:07 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 2.405 – 1039 (9 min)
30 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.358 – 1201 (91 min)
77 ticks

Pullback to 2.376 – 1233 (123 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.425 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.434 – 9 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.465 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Smaller than average move climbed to hover above the PP Pivot. As it hovered for about 15 sec on 2 separate occasions, look to exit quickly with a handful of ticks. After that it reversed into a strong short trend for about 1.5 hrs.

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 10.29.2015

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Feb 022016
 

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 10_29_2015

10/29/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 70B
Actual: 63B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.348
1st Peak @ 2.370 – 1030:04 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 2.348 – 1030:14 (1 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 2.372 – 1031:07 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 2.343 – 1034 (4 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 2.365 – 1039 (9 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.361 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.369 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.395 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Smaller than average move climbed to hover around the R1 Pivot. As it hovered for about 5 sec, look to exit quickly. It reversed quickly for 22 ticks in 14 sec, then cycled again in the next 3 min.

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11.5.2015

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Feb 022016
 

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11_5_2015

11/5/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 60B
Actual: 52B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.313
1st Peak @ 2.347 – 1030:03 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 2.322 – 1030:44 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.352 – 1036 (6 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 2.326 – 1043 (13 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 2.345 – 1103 (33 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.331 (long)
Slippage: 8 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.346 – 15 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.360 (No SMA / Pivot near – 30 ticks) – move lower

Notes: Smaller than average move climbed to hover around the R2 Pivot. As it hovered for about 5 sec, look to exit quickly. It reversed 25 ticks in 44 sec, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in the next 5 min and collapsed.

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