NG Storage | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11.13.2015

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Feb 022016

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11_13_2015

11/13/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 51B
Actual: 49B
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.323
1st Peak @ 2.333 – 1030:04 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 2.300 – 1030:24 (1 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 2.330 – 1036 (6 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2.320 – 1041 (11 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.375 – 1121 (51 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 2.328 – 1212 (102 min)
53 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.333 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.333 – Breakeven (likely exit 2.326 to 2.329 – 4-7 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.360 (just above the R2 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Dull reaction barely filled then hovered and recoiled. In this scenario look to exit quickly as it is unusual and likely to continue to reverse. The results were nearly matching too. After the sharp reversal, it rebounded and eventually turned into a long trend.

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11.19.2015

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Feb 022016

NG 12-15 (1 Min) 11_19_2015

11/19/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 23B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.333
1st Peak @ 2.370 – 1030:01 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 2.324 – 1030:33 (1 min)
46 ticks

Pullback to 2.356 – 1033 (3 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 2.340 – 1037 (7 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.376 – 1045 (15 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.3254- 1053 (23 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.351 (long)
Slippage: 8 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.369 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.360 (just above the R2 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Average reaction, but shortly sustained. As it peaked quickly then backed off and hovered, exit quickly to lock in the ebbing profit. Plenty of big swings after that in about 30 min.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 11.25.2015

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Feb 062016

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 11_25_2015

11/25/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1200 EST)
Forecast: 5B
Actual: 9B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.327
1st Peak @ 2.339 – 1200:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 2.3219- 1030:02 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.347 – 1216 (16 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 2.309 – 1240 (40 min)
38 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.3339 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.319 – 20 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Near match, the day before Thanksgiving with an abnormal release time cause a small whipsaw to stop you out. Then a delayed 2nd peak and reversal. Good reversal opportunity at 1218 with 3 bars unable to push the HOD any higher and the R1 Pivot looming 2 ticks higher.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.3.2015

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Feb 062016

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12_3_2015

12/3/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -22B
Actual: -53B
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.164
1st Peak @ 2.190 – 1030:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 2.164 – 1030:54 (1 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 2.174 – 1037 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 2.145 – 1106 (36 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 2.177 – 1136 (66 min)
32 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.179 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.182 – 3 ticks (likely exit 2.177 – 2 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.201 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Smaller than average move climbed to hit the PP Pivot then recoil to hover around the old HOD. As it hovered for about 30 sec, look to exit near breakeven.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.10.2015

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Feb 062016

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12_10_2015

12/10/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -64B
Actual: -76B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.062
1st Peak @ 2.096 – 1031:16 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 2.078 – 1033 (3 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.099 – 1038 (8 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 2.076 – 1044 (14 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.009 – 1223 (113 min)
90 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.081 (long)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.095 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.107 (just above the R1 Pivot) – move lower

Notes: A late peaking reaction as the PP Pivot held it lower for a while. In this situation you could have exited quickly with up to 8 ticks or waited for the small recoil and later rise and achieved a few more ticks. It then climbed for a minor 2nd peak before collapsing in the next 2 hrs.

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12.17.2015

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Feb 072016

NG 01-16 (1 Min) 12_17_2015

12/17/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -34B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.833
Whipsaw between 1.807 and 1.845 – 1030:04 (1 min)
38 ticks span

Pullback to 1.801 – 1030:57 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.813 – 1031:09 (2 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.784 – 1034 (4 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.835 – 1041 (11 min)
51 ticks

Pullback to 1.773 – 1055 (25 min)
62 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.818 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.840 – 22 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Whipsaw initially that was a precursor for large swings in the next several min, then long time frames.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.6.2013

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Jun 082013

6/6/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 111B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.926 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.908 – 1030 (1 min)
18 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.844 – 1032 (3 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 3.883 – 1044 (14 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a small premature short spike 30 sec before the report that extended the LOD, then a consistent news based spike that fell 82 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.914 with about 2 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing (too early for news based) but small size, you could close out with a handful ot ticks or wait for the potential real spike. If you waited, you would have been able to capture 60+ ticks with ease. The peak was more sustainable than normal as it hit the S4 Pivot and stuck for about 7 min before the divergence built up to cause it to rebound for 39 ticks and eclipse the 20 SMA. After that it traded sideways between the S4 Mid Pivot and S4 Pivot.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 5.30.2013

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Jun 082013

5/30/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 85B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.124 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 4.174 – 1030 (1 min)
50 ticks

1st Peak @ 4.075 – 1031 (2 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 4.128 – 1032 (3 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.041 – 1218 (108 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 4.064 – 1236 (126 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large premature long spike 3 sec before the report that nearly reached the PP Pivot, then after the news, the 1st peak drove it lower by nearly 100 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.144 with about 10 ticks of slippage on premature spike. Due to the timing (too early for news based) and size, close out with profit of about 20 ticks. The short move due to the news initiated on time and left 34 ticks on the tail naked. This continued into a quick reversal of 53 ticks back to the 13 SMA. Then it labored for a slow developing 2nd peak of 34 more ticks in the next 105 min. After that it reversed for 23 ticks in 18 min.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.13

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May 252013

5/23/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 90B
Actual: 89B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 4.190 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.248 – 1031 (2 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 4.192 – 1032 (3 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an average but unsustainable long spike of 58 ticks that eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar then fell just as quickly leaving over 40 ticks on the bar naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.200 with no slippage on premature noise. It topped out at 4.204 on the :30 bar, so you could have closed out with 2-3 ticks, or waited for the :31 bar. If you waited, a profit target of 45 or less would have filled. Otherwise look to exit in between 4.220 and 4.230 as it was hovering. After the peak, the :32 bar saw a low of 56 ticks on the reversal. Then it attempted a 2nd peak but fell 7 ticks short of a double top at the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it fell to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA, then traded sideways.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.16.2013

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May 252013

5/16/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 99B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.000
1st Peak @ 3.942 – 1031 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 3.991 – 1033 (3 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.931 – 1035 (5 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 3.965 – 1039 (9 min)
34 ticks

Final Peak @3.916 – 1115 (45 min)
84 ticks

Final Reversal to 3.943 – 1133 (63 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Mildly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an average short spike of 58 ticks that bottomed on the :31 bar. It eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot but did not cross any SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.965 with 25 ticks of slippage. Then look to exit around breakeven as it was hovering near the fill point for 14 sec before it reversed. The reversal reclaimed 49 ticks, then fell after hitting the S2 Pivot for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks on the :35 bar. Then it reversed again for 34 ticks to nearly reach the 13 SMA. The final peak trickled down slowly for another 15 ticks in about 35 min. Then it reversed for only 17 ticks before settling down to trade sideways.

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