9/6/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 28B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 2.823
1st Peak @ 2.866 – 0431 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.778 – 0448 (18 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a medium sized long spike that ran into a brick wall at the R2 Pivot after crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it left most of the :31 bar wick naked and crashed further. The market was likely overbought in the very short term, and hitting the R2 Pivot was a catalyst for selling. With JOBB, after 10 ticks of slippage, you would have filled long at about 2.843 then had an opportunity to close as it slowly backed off of the R2 Pivot after hitting it twice for about 12 or so ticks. The reversal chopped lower, easily crossing the PP Pivot and 50 SMA, then struggling through the 100 and 200 SMA for 88 ticks in about 18 min.

8/23/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 47B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.764
1st Peak @ 2.682 – 0431 (1 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 2.730 – 0436 (6 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Larger than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a fairly large short spike on the :31 bar. With JOBB, after 20-25 ticks of slippage, you would still have an opportunity for 25-35 ticks of profit when it hovered at the 2.702 area. The market was already trending lower, so all 3 major SMAs were above the trade action. The spike only crossed the S2 Pivot about halfway down its descent. 2.682 was a low tested on 8/16 and a firm area of support with no trading below the level happening since late June. The reversal gained 48 ticks in 5 min to find resistance in the area of the S2 Pivot. There is no clear opportunity for a secondary trade on this report, so play it safe and sit it out. After the reversal, the market did not stray too far from the area of the S2 Pivot, encountering resistance when the SMAs trended lower and support at the 2.720 area.

8/9/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 30B
Actual: 24B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.930
1st Peak @ 3.045 – 0432 (2 min)
115 ticks

Reversal to 3.012 – 0435 (5 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.120 – 0457 (27 min)
190 ticks

Reversal to 3.068 – 0517 (47 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Less than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large long spike and 2nd peak with a moderate reversal. All 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot were below the trading action at the origin. The initial spike crossed the R1 and R2 Pivots. After a retracement for 33 ticks culminating on the :35 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another impressive 75 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :57 bar. Then the reversal achieved 52 ticks in 20 min after the 2nd peak, before bouncing higher again off of the 50 SMA.

7/26/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 26B
Actual: 26B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.072
1st Peak @ 3.041 / Retrace to 3.100 – 0431 (1 min)
-31 ticks / 28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.111 – 0439 (9 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 3.000 – 0513 (43 min)
111 ticks

Notes: Exactly matching report caused a double wicker spanning nearly 60 ticks on the :31 bar. It then went for a 2nd peak 11 ticks higher than the wick of the :31 bar, fighting through all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot in a tight fist between the 3.076 and 3.081 area. Then we saw a large reversal fight through the same barriers and head down to eclipse the S1 Pivot and bottom out at the psychological level of 3.000 about 30 min after the 2nd peak. With a double wicker, a good play is too look to trap trade a breakout from the hi/lo of the :31 bar. In this case place a short entry at about 3.105 with a stop 15 ticks above, then flatten the order when it goes lower than 3.040 (the bottom of the :31 bar).

7/12/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 33B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.860
1st Peak @ 2.730 – 0431 (1 min)
130 ticks

Reversal to 2.784 – 0434 (4 min)
54 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.720 – 0442 (12 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 2.853 – 0555 (85 min)
133 ticks

Notes: Greater than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large short spike and 2nd peak with a large but slow developing reversal. All 3 SMAs were crossed near the origin, then the PP Pivot was crossed about halfway down the :31 bar and the S1 Pivot was crossed near the bottom. After a retracement for 54 ticks on the :34 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another 10 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :42 bar. Then the reversal achieved 133 ticks over an hour later after going sideways for 45 min just above the S1 Pivot and on the 50 SMA.