7/25/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 44B
Actual: 41B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.711 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.759 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 3.650 – 1034 (5 min)
109 ticks

Pullback to 3.678 – 1040 (10 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike with no premature move that hit the R1 Pivot then ended up retreating as the bar was expiring. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.731 with 10 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and hover between 3.745 and 3.755. A 20 tick profit target would have filled easily. It kept chopping sideways until about 15 sec into the bar, then reversed dramatically. If you left the stop loss at 20 ticks and did not exit, you would have been stopped out during the reversal with low slippage, but the loss would have been preventable. The reversal continued into the :34 bar for 109 ticks total as it hit the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back up to give back 28 ticks in 5 min as it hit the 13 SMA before falling lower, then chopping sideways.

8/8/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 74B
Actual: 96B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.230 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.129 – 1031 (1 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 3.232 – 1033 (3 min)
103 ticks

Pullback to 3.176 – 1038 (8 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.275 – 1103 (33 min)
99 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a short spike with a 15 tick consistent premature move that hit the S3 Mid Pivot, then retreated strongly, leaving 46 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.216 with about 4 ticks of slippage on the premature move about 38 sec into the :30 bar, then seen it back off and leave you between 5-10 ticks in the red as the candle expired. In this case you could have closed the order out with about a 10 tick loss or let it play out with the 20 tick stop positioned near the price action to take a potential loss. If you let it ride, after about 5 sec, it would have been chopping between 45 and 70 ticks of profit, roughly between the S2 and S3 Mid Pivots. A target placed at 3.140 would have easily filled with 76 ticks. After it hit the S3 Mid Pivot, it rebounded quickly, returning to the origin for 103 ticks in 2 min. Then it pulled back 44 ticks to eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 99 ticks in 25 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. High volatility on this report.

8/22/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 68B
Actual: 57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.510 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.555 – 1031 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 3.531 – 1037 (7 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.559 – 1041 (11 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 3.540 – 1050 (20 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike of 45 ticks that nearly reached the R2 Pivot with movement on the :30 bar that would have barely been contained within the bracket. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.535 with about 15 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 7 and 17 ticks of profit. With the R2 Pivot lingering just a few ticks away, place a target around 3.557 and move the stop up to about 5 ticks in the green. It would have just missed the target and hit the stop for a 4-5 tick gain. Then it reversed for 24 ticks back to the 13 SMA in 6 min, before achieving a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to reach the R2 Pivot on the :41 bar. Then it reversed for 19 ticks, crossing the 13/20 SMAs to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot.

9/5/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 55B
Actual: 58B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.690 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.617 – 1034 (4 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 3.635 – 1037 (7 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.602 – 1043 (13 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 3.638 – 1118 (48 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a short spike of 73 ticks that nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot with movement on the :30 bar that would have easily been contained within the bracket. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.660 with about 20 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and hover around 3.635 for several seconds. You could either exit there, or look for a target on the S2 Mid Pivot just a few ticks away for 25-35 ticks. After the peak on the :34 bar, it reversed for a paltry 18 ticks in 3 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks 6 min later, eclipsing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 36 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot in 35 min.

9/19/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 60B
Actual: 46B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.760 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.744 (1030)
16 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.820 – 1031 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 3.764 – 1034 (4 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.740 – 1100 (30 min)
80 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a premature short spike of 16 ticks followed immediately by the true long move of 60 ticks that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot, then retreated leaving 27 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.748 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it rally to hit your stop loss for a 36 tick loss with 16 ticks of slippage. The gain was short lived as it started reversing at 11 sec into the :31 bar. The reversal achieved 56 ticks in 3 min to return to the origin. Then after a brief pullback attempt, it achieved another 24 ticks to the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot on the extended reversal.