10/3/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 101B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.538 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.490 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 3.549 – 1055 (25 min)
59 ticks

Pullback to 3.507 – 1128 (58 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 48 tick short spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the 50 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot near the origin then the S1 Pivot . With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.510 with about 18 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 15 ticks of profit and breakeven. With the S1 Pivot in the middle of the action, place a target just below there at about 3.497 which would have easily filled on multiple occasions. After the :31 bar, it reversed steadily for 59 ticks in the next 24 min beyond the origin, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Then it pulled back to an area just above the S1 Pivot at the bottom of the hour for 42 ticks.

10/22/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 81B
Actual: 77B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.634 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.610 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.644 – 1038 (8 min)
34 ticks

Double Bottom @ 3.610 – 1046 (16 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 3.652 – 1112 (42 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Due to the US Gov shutdown, this report should have released on 10/17 but was delayed 5 days. Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 24 tick short spike as the :30 bar was expiring. The spike started on the 100 SMA, then crossed the 50 SMA and extended the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.616 with about 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop above the fill point for the early part of the bar. The best approach on a smaller move like this is too place a profit target around break even. In this case the 20 tick stop loss would have been safe to absorb the heat, and then it would have given you 2 opportunities to exit at 10-12 sec and 20-27 sec with 2 ticks to spare. The reversal gained 34 ticks, back to the 200 SMA before it fell to a double bottom on the :46 bar. Then it reversed again for 42 ticks in the next 26 min to just above the 200 SMA.

10/31/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual: 38B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.584 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.560 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.591 – 1031 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.611 – 1042 (12 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an indecisive reaction on the :31 bar after the movement on the :30 bar was easily contained within the bracket. The spike fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks, then reversed for 31 ticks immediately before chopping for the rest of the bar and settling near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.564 with about 10 ticks of slippage, then seen it stop you out immediately for a 20 tick loss with no slippage. After the :31 bar, it backed off before continuing to reverse for another 20 ticks to the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot 11 min later.

11/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 21B
Actual: 20B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.501 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.545 – 1031 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.507 – 1032 (2 min)
38 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.560 – 1035 (5 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.508 – 1111 (41 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 44 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the S1 Mid Pivot at the top before retreating to leave 31 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.526 with about 15 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 15 ticks as it hovered near the top of the bar for about 5 sec before retreating. After the :31 bar, it continued to reverse for a few more ticks, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in 3 min as it eclipsed the OOD. Then it reversed for 52 ticks in the next 35 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

12/5/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -141B
Actual: -162B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.006 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.078 – 1031 (1 min)
72 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.089 – 1034 (4 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 4.060 – 1040 (10 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 72 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the R3 Mid Pivot at the top and greatly extended the HOD, closing near the top of the bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.037 with about 21 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately at the R3 Mid Pivot and back to off to chop between 4.055 and 4.021 (R2 Mid Pivot) for 20 sec before it ascended to the end of the bar. The stop at -20 ticks would have been positioned well to absorb the heat with 4 ticks to spare just below the R2 Mid Pivot. A pre-established profit target of 20 ticks would have filled easily, or wait until after 20 sec into the bar for later rally due to the large draw. After the :31 bar, it continued to edge higher for another 11 ticks in the next 3 min. Then it only reversed 29 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 13 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot. It remained above the R3 Mid Pivot until about 1130 before it finally was able to go lower.