1/9/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -147B
Actual: -157B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.156 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.192 – 1031 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 4.142 – 1033 (3 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 4.190 – 1045 (15 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 4.129 – 1108 (38 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 36 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD and nearly reached the HOD for 36 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.180 with about 14 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 14 ticks of heat and 10 ticks of profit for the first 21 sec of the bar. A target of anything less than 12 ticks would have filled, or look to exit late in the bar just above the S1 Mid Pivot for about 5 ticks. It reversed strongly on the next 2 bars for 50 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and matching a low hit twice in the previous hour. Then it pulled back for 48 ticks in a near double top in the next 12 min. After that the bears won the final fight, dragging it down 61 ticks in 23 min to nearly reach the LOD.

1/23/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -112B
Actual: -107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.812 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.871 – 1031 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 4.827 – 1032 (2 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.886 – 1041 (11 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 4.821 – 1045 (15 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 4.877 – 1100 (30 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 4.756 – 1135 (65 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Slightly lesser draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 59 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot on the upward path, then peaked on the 200 SMA, before retreating late in the bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.829 with about 7 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 4.860, just above the R2 Mid Pivot with 30+ ticks. This would have easily filled up to 30 sec into the bar. It backed off about 38 ticks as the bar expired, then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 15 more ticks on the :41 bar, briefly penetrating the 200 SMA, but quickly retreating. Then it reversed 65 ticks in 4 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. Then it chopped sideways and pulled back to eclipse the 200 SMA one more time at the top of the hour. After that, it reversed strongly in the next 35 min for 121 ticks, then continued oscillating with a lower center of gravity.

2/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -270B
Actual: -262B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 5.136 (1029)
Premature spike @ 5.105 (1029:22)
31 ticks

Reversal to 5.140 (1029:37)
35 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.000 – 1030:15 (1 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 5.087 – 1030:43 (1 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.971 – 1033 (3 min)
169 ticks

Reversal to 5.120 – 1037 (7 min)
149 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short move with a premature 31 tick short spike on the :30 bar. Ever since the extreme winter conditions have taken hold we have seen much larger moves on the NG and trading over 5.000 for the first time in a few years. The premature spike fell to eclipse the 50 SMA and 20/13 SMAs then chopped sideways before pulling back to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 5.120 with 6 ticks of slippage on the :30 bar. Since the fill was premature look for a safe and quick exit. Moving the profit target up to the 5.110 area for 10 ticks would have been smart as it chopped between 5.105 and 5.120 for 14 sec before it pulled back above the 50 SMA. Then when the news broke, it fell for 140 ticks to 5.000 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 87 ticks at :43 sec, before falling for a 2nd peak of another 29 ticks to 4.971 on the :33 bar. After that it reversed for 149 ticks in the next 4 min to the 50 SMA. In the aftermath, it continued large swings, but the peaks and valleys along with the timing was fairly random, making it difficult to trade.

2/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -255B
Actual: -250B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 6.081 (1029)
Premature spike @ 6.105 (1029:40)
24 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.975 – 1030:15 (1 min)
106 ticks

Reversal to 6.050 – 1030:52 (1 min)
75 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.882 – 1036 (6 min)
199 ticks

Reversal to 6.053 – 1059 (29 min)
171 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short move with a premature 24 tick long spike on the :30 bar. The premature spike was moderate in size, but rose in a tame and safe manner. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 6.091 with no slippage on the :30 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around 6.103 allowing for an easy exit with 12 ticks. Exiting early in this case would have avoided a probable 30-50 tick loss. Then when the news broke, it fell for 106 ticks to 5.975 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 75 ticks at :52 sec, before falling for a 2nd peak of another 93 ticks to 5.882 on the :36 bar. After that it reversed for 171 ticks in the next 23 min to the 100/200 SMAs. In the aftermath, it continued to climb, eventually reaching the R1 Mid Pivot over an hour after the report.

3/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -134B
Actual: -152B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.538 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.665 – 1033 (3 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 4.620 – 1041 (11 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.695 – 1056 (26 min)
157 ticks

Reversal to 4.629 – 1115 (45 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long move with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin, the HOD, and the R1 Mid Pivot to peak on the :33 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.575 with 27 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around the R1 Mid Pivot at 4.641 allowing for an easy exit with 60+ ticks. With the larger offset, this is also a safer report to be patient for a higher exit. After reaching 4.665 on the :33 bar, it reversed for 45 ticks in 10 min back to the 13 SMA. After 7 min of chopping above the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 30 more ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 66 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. After that it oscillated sideways near the R1 Mid Pivot.