3/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -48B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.434 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.356 – 1031 (1 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 4.410 – 1038 (8 min)
54 ticks

Pullback to 4.371 – 1100 (30 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 4.393 – 1105 (35 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot then touched the LOD for 78 ticks on the :31 bar. It retreated late in the bar leaving 20 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.401 with 23 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet lower and hit the LOD after 7 sec. Look to exit at about 4.365 with about 35 ticks where it hovered for about 7 sec. After the peak, it reversed for 54 ticks in the next 7 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it pulled back for 39 ticks in 22 min before a quick reversal of 22 ticks around the S2 Pivot.

4/3/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -75B
Actual: -74B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.403 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.361 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-42 ticks

Reversal to 4.399 – 1030:03 (1 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 4.362 – 1033 (3 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 4.435 – 1107 (37 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an unstable short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike started in between the 50/100 SMAs and crossed the 200 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot, and OOD for 42 ticks, then retreated for 38 ticks 3 sec later. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.380 with 13 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it fall another 19 ticks and reverse back to the origin. Depending on your settings, you probably took a few ticks slippage on a breakeven to exit with a 5 tick loss. If you did not use a breakeven, the reversal would have been contained by 1 tick of the 20 tick stop and allowed for a manual exit close to breakeven after about 20 sec. The matching news is the culprit for the initial whipsaw. After the :31 bar, we saw a pullback to a double bottom on the :33 bar followed by a reversal of 73 ticks in the next 34 min that crossed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD.

4/17/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual: 24B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.521
1st Peak @ 4.687 – 1032 (2 min)
166 ticks

Reversal to 4.660 – 1034 (4 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.717 – 1045 (15 min)
196 ticks

Reversal to 4.690 – 1056 (26 min)
27 ticks

Notes: In a near identical reaction to the previous week, smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long spike. The spike started above the 100 SMA and crossed the 200 SMA, the R3 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD for 166 ticks on the :31 and :32 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.575 with about 44 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to climb until halfway through the :32 bar after it crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. With patience, up to 100+ ticks could have been captured on this report. After a small reversal of 27 ticks on the next 2 bars, it continued to step higher for a final peak of 30 more ticks in the next 11 min, crossing the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 11 min after crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

5/1/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 82B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.778
1st Peak @ 4.718 – 1030:00 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 4.761 – 1036 (6 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 4.728 – 1044 (14 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 4.755 – 1048 (18 min)
27 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD for 60 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.760 with about 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 10 sec. A profit target of anything less than 40 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 30-35 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the S2 Pivot on the back end of the :31 bar, then continued to ascend to the old LOD position in the next 5 min. Then it pulled back for 33 ticks in the next 8 min and continued to chop in the next 45 min for large swings as it trended lower.

5/15/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 99B
Actual: 105B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.362
1st Peak @ 4.289 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-73 ticks

Reversal to 4.386 – 1030:05 (1 min)
97 ticks

Continued Reversal to 4.459 – 1032 (2 min)
170 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.509 – 1101 (31 min)
220 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction with a healthy short move followed by a large long reversal that was sustained. The spike started just above the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed nearly 100 ticks in the next 5 sec to the OOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.322 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and reverse to stop you out at about 4.347 with 5 ticks of slippage in the violent swings in the first second. After it settled down, it rose to cross the R2 Pivot on the :32 bar. Then it chopped sideways and continued to climb for another 50 ticks in the next 29 min to reach the R3 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways.