NG Storage | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

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Jun 022014

5/29/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 110B
Actual: 114B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.616
Premature Spike @ 4.665 – 10:29:59 (0 min)
49 ticks

1st Peak @ 4.529 – 1033 (3 min)
136 ticks

Reversal to 4.653 – 1136 (66 min)
124 ticks

Notes: We saw a negligible offset coupled with a premature long spike 1 sec early. It climbed 49 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD, then abruptly fell on the next sec for over 70 tick reversal. Fortunately with the settings and :59 sec setup, the order would have been rejected as it was trying to apply on the chart as the stops would have been on the wrong side of the price action. This would have kept you out of the losing trade. Once again, the premature move appears to have ruined an otherwise profitable trade that was a stable short move as it fell 136 ticks from the premature spike top and 87 ticks from the origin to reach the S1 Mid Pivot. After the peak, it reversed 124 ticks in the next hour, nearly reaching the R1 Pivot. After that it fell and traded sideways in the vicinity of the SMAs.

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.5.2014

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Jun 192014

6/5/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 116B
Actual: 119B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.662
1st Peak @ 4.586 – 1030:40 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 4.621 – 1041 (11 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 4.591 – 1049 (19 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 4.658 – 1129 (59 min)
67 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the PP and S1 Pivots and extend the LOD for 76 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.630 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the bottom by the S1 Pivot for most of the bar. A profit target of anything less than 43 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 35 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the 13 SMA and almost reached the PP after 10 min for 35 ticks. Then it pulled back for 30 ticks to the S1 Pivot before reversing for 67 ticks in the next 40 min to the 200 SMA.

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

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Jun 212014

6/12/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 111B
Actual: 107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.544
1st Peak @ 4.683 – 1032:58 (3 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 4.656 – 1036 (6 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.708 – 1049 (19 min)
164 ticks

Reversal to 4.677 – 1100 (30 min)
31 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large long spike that continued to progressively climb. The spike started on the tightly clustered 3 Major SMAs and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar, and the R3 Pivot on the :33 bar for a total of 139 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.579 with about 25 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to ratchet higher without much of a retreat until about 3 min after the report. This would have allowed an exit of up to 100 ticks. After that it fell 27 ticks in the next 3 min, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 25 more ticks after 13 min to the R4 Mid Pivot. Then it fell 31 ticks in the next 11 min and traded sideways.

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

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Jun 212014

6/19/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 112B
Actual: 113B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.665
1st Peak @ 4.579 – 1030:15 (1 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 4.647 – 1033 (3 min)
68 ticks

Pullback to 4.611 – 1041 (11 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 4.644 – 1053 (23 min)
33 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.695 – 1135 (65 min)
84 ticks

Notes: We saw a nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike after a premature spike that happened 5 sec early. Fortunately, the :59 sec setup time would have been after the premature move and allowed a safe entry. The spike started just above the 200 SMA and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot for 86 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.633 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec before It retreated. Look to exit near there with about 40 ticks. Due to the match, it reversed quickly in the next 2 bars for 68 ticks to the 20 SMA. Then it pulled back for 36 ticks in the next 8 min to nearly reach the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed for 33 ticks in 12 min and another 51 ticks in the next 42 min to reach the PP Pivot.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

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Jul 102014

6/26/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 110B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.565
1st Peak @ 4.485 – 1030:16 (1 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 4.508 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.431 – 1035 (5 min)
134 ticks

Reversal to 4.483 – 1042 (12 min)
52 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short spike that was very stable easy to capture. The spike started above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 80 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.530 with about 25 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall then hover below the S2 Pivot allowing about 40 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next bar before falling for a 2nd peak of 64 more ticks on the :35 bar as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 52 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 13 SMA and traded sideways. Of note this is one of the infrequent occasions where trading the reversal on the :33 bar would not have worked out.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

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Jul 102014

7/3/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 100B
Actual: 100B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.341
1st Peak @ 4.387 – 1030:32 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 4.371 – 1032 (2 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.405 – 1033 (3 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 4.387 – 1034 (4 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.411 – 1047 (17 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 4.356 – 1101 (31 min)
55 ticks

Notes: We saw a matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate long spike that was very stable easy to capture. The spike started just below the 50 / 100 SMAs and rose to cross the PP Pivot and extend the HOD on the :31 bar for a total of 46 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.362 with about 11 ticks of slippage, then seen it back off in the first 10 sec before continuing to climb to reach the PP Pivot and hover for about 20 sec allowing about 20 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks on the :32 and :33 bars as it neared the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks and chopped between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots in the next 14 min as the final peak snagged abother 6 ticks. Then it reversed for 55 ticks in the next 14 min to reach the 200 / 100 SMAs and OOD.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.10.2014

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Jul 202014

7/10/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 92B
Actual: 93B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.168
1st Peak @ 4.114 – 1030:30 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 4.150 – 1034 (4 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 4.120 – 1038 (8 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 4.170 – 1048 (4 min)
50 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an initial whipsaw followed by a moderate short spike. There was a premature spike at about 6 sec before the report that would not have affected the setup. The spike started on the SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 54 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.141 with about 17 ticks of slippage, then seen it immediately stop you out on a quick retracement. After that it fell methodically to peak at the midpoint of the bar for 54 ticks. Then it reversed for 36 ticks in the next 3 bars to eclipse the S1 Pivot before pulling back for 30 ticks to the S2 Pivot 4 min later. Then it reversed to 50 ticks to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.17.2014

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Jul 202014

7/17/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 99B
Actual: 107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.053
1st Peak @ 3.975 – 1030:42 (1 min)
78 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.956 – 1035 (5 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 3.980 – 1048 (18 min)
24 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 8k which caused a large short spike that fell 50 ticks in the first second. The spike started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the S3 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 78 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.012 with about 31 ticks of slippage, then seen it trickle lower until hovering in the middle of the bar near the low. Look to exit with about 30-35 ticks. It never reversed before falling for a 2nd peak of 19 more tick after 4 more min to reach the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 24 ticks in 13 min to reach the 20 SMA.

NG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.14.2014

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Sep 012014

8/14/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 81B
Actual: 78B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.876
1st Peak @ 3.947 – 1030:00 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 3.895 – 1034 (4 min)
52 ticks

Pullback to 3.939 – 1116 (46 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.907 – 1146 (76 min)
32 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 3BCF which caused a long spike that started just above the PP Pivot and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD for 71 ticks in the first second. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.919 with about 33 ticks of slippage, then seen it oscillate around the R1 Pivot for the first 30 sec of the :31 bar. A profit target of 25 ticks or less would have easily filled. Otherwise, look to exit around 3.940 with about 20 ticks. It reversed for a total of 52 ticks in the next 3 bars as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the 13 SMA. Then it slowly pulled back for 44 ticks in the next 42 min, using the 13/20 SMAs for support until it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 32 ticks in the next 30 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

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Sep 012014

8/21/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 83B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.906
1st Peak @ 3.795 – 1030:07 (1 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 3.826 – 1031:07 (2 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.786 – 1034 (4 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 3.814 – 1039 (9 min)
28 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 5BCF which caused a late breaking short spike that fell 39 ticks in the first second then retreated quickly for 26 ticks before falling to match the low. There was a premature long spike of 32 ticks 3 sec before the report and 2 sec before the bracket setup. The true spike started at the top of the premature move and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD in 7 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.855 with about 41 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and stall around 3.800. A profit target of anything less than 60 ticks would have easily filled, otherwise look to exit around 3.800 with 50+ ticks. It reversed for 45 ticks after 1 min, then fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks on the :34 bar. A manual buy order setup around the S1 Pivot for the 3 min reversal would have been perfect here for about 20 ticks on a quick exit. The reversal only achieved 28 ticks in 5 min as it reached the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways below the S1 Mid Pivot.

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