8/28/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 75B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.028
1st Peak @ 4.101 – 1030:00 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 4.049 – 1030:23 (1 min)
52 ticks

Continued Reversal to 4.038 – 1035 (5 min)
62 ticks

Pullback to 4.066 – 1054 (24 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 4.002 – 1127 (57 min)
64 ticks
Extended Reversal to 3.973 – 1241 (131 min)
93 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 4BCF which caused a quick long spike of 73 ticks after a premature short move of 12 ticks 1 sec before the report. The spike rose to cross the R2 Pivot, then collapsed back to the area of the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.072 with about 34 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up another 30 ticks and crash. It hovered around 4.076 for about 8 sec allowing an exit with a handful of ticks. Then it reversed for a total of 52 ticks from the top of the peak a few sec later. If you had not exited before that, you would have been stopped out here. It chopped for the next 5 min between the R1 Pivot and 100 SMA before pulling back to cross the R1 Pivot 19 min later. Then it reversed for a total of 93 ticks in the next 2 hrs to the S1 Mid Pivot.

9/11/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 84B
Actual: 92B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.905
1st Peak @ 3.822 – 1031:24 (2 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 3.844 – 1039 (9 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.815 – 1101 (31 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 3.831 – 1107 (37 min)
16 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 8BCF which caused a quick short spike of 83 ticks with minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. The spike started on the S2 Pivot then fell to cross the 100/50 SMAs, the LOD and the S4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.875 with about 20 ticks of slippage, then seen it settle down after 4 sec to trade below 3.840 for the rest of the bar. An exit near 3.830 would have been prudent for about 45 ticks. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in the next 9 bars to nearly reach the 13 SMA and S3 Pivot. This would have been an ideal setup for the 3 min reversal with a buy on or below the S4 Mid Pivot and one just above the LOD, then a profit target of 15-20 ticks would have easily filled. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 23 min. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 6 min and traded sideways abover the S4 Mid Pivot.

9/25/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 98B
Actual: 97B
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 3.908
1st Peak @ 3.889 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Reversal to 3.953 – 1030:25 (1 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 3.928 – 1030:48 (1 min)
-25 ticks

Reversal to 3.972 – 1037 (7 min)
44 ticks

Pullback to 3.922 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: We saw a near match on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick short spike of only 19 ticks to nearly reach the S1 Pivot, then hovering prior to a large reversal. There was minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.895 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 6 ticks of profit and 8 ticks loss in the the first 8 sec. This would have been a trigger to exit near breakeven along with the matching result. After 8 sec, it reversed 64 ticks in the next 17 sec to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back 25 ticks in the next 13 sec and remained in the area of the 200 SMA / PP Pivot as the bar expired. After that it reversed for 44 ticks in the next 6 min to extend the HOD and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 50 ticks in the next 21 min to the 100 SMA.

10/9/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 108B
Actual: 105B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.838
1st Peak @ 3.888 – 1030:04 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 3.861 – 1035 (5 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.941 – 1113 (43 min)
103 ticks

Reversal to 3.877 – 1159 (89 min)
25 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick long spike of 50 ticks that hovered on the PP Pivot before backing off. It started in on the 200 SMA then rose to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD. There was minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.867 with about 19 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop on the PP Pivot for 5 sec before backing off about 15 ticks If you were fast, you could have exited before it fell with about 15 ticks. Otherwise with the minimal internal bar reversal, it would be minimal risk to wait for a rebound and another attempt to cross the PP Pivot. After the double top on the :32 bar, it reversed 30 ticks to the OOD in 4 min, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 53 more ticks in the next 38 min as it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 64 ticks in the next 46 min to the PP Pivot.

10/23/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 97B
Actual: 94B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.617
1st Peak @ 3.675 – 1030:00 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 3.624 – 1031:31 (2 min)
51 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.683 – 1056 (26 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 3.645 – 1117 (47 min)
38 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick long spike of 58 ticks that reached the PP Pivot and snapped back. It started just above the 100 SMA then rose to trade above the S1 Mid Pivot. There was no premature noise. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.649 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between the S1 Mid and PP Pivots. Look to exit on the high end of the range for about 15-20 ticks. After that it reversed for 51 ticks on the :32 bar back to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it stepped higher in the next 24 min to eclipse the PP Pivot for a final peak of 8 more ticks before reversing 38 ticks in 21 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.