9/30/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.10M
Actual: 3.96M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.04M
Actual: 3.25M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.47M
Actual: -0.27M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 45.42
1st Peak @ 44.73 – 1032:04 (3 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 45.85 – 1042 (12 min)
112 ticks

Pullback to 45.02 – 1125 (55 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 45.51 – 1151 (81 min)
49 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.29 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 44.74 – 55 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.13 or 44.95 (just below the 200 SMA or S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Gains on all products caused a long developing 1st peak due to several layers of support. Be patient in this case as there is nothing bullish in the news. Nice strong reversal after reaching the S1 Pivot. Then a double top for a perfect short entry.

10/15/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: 2.85M
Actual: 7.56M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.70M
Actual: -2.62M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.06M
Actual: -1.52M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 45.78
1st Peak @ 45.42 – 1100:31 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 45.89 – 1101:54 (2 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 45.23 – 1126 (26 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 46.38 – 1301 (121 min)
115 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.64 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 45.43 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.25 (40 ticks) – move higher to about 45.48

Notes: Notice the hovering just below the S2 Pivot and look to exit. After the large reversal, it presented an opportunity for a short entry on the 2nd peak.

10/28/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.42M
Actual: 3.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.82M
Actual: -1.14M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.68M
Actual: -2.95M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 44.57
1st Peak @ 45.26 – 1031:14 (2 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 44.75 – 1036 (6 min)
51 ticks

Final Peak @ 45.97 – 1102 (32 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 45.37 – 1116 (46 min)
60 ticks

Expected Fill: 44.67 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 45.25 – 58 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.04 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report followed the uptrend with misses on all the products. Then it continued to step higher for next 30 min.

11/12/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 1.02M
Actual: 4.22M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.81M
Actual: -2.10M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.93M
Actual: 0.35M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 42.25
1st Peak @ 42.86 – 1100:00 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 41.97 – 1101:33 (2 min)
89 ticks

Pullback to 42.56 – 1106 (6 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 41.71 – 1131 (31 min)
85 ticks

Expected Fill: 42.40 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.84 – 44 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 42.80 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: With an aptly placed profit target, the quick peak would have been captured. Otherwise exit quickly with about 20 ticks as it backed off, hovered, and then reversed more. Notice the repeated tests of the S2 Mid Pivot 2-4 min after the report as a great long setup for a pullback.

11/25/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.20M
Actual: 0.96M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.94M
Actual: 2.48M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.42M
Actual: 1.05M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 42.00
1st Peak @ 41.86 – 1030:00 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 42.08 – 1030:03 (1 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 41.86 – 1030:43 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 42.29 – 1031:57 (2 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 42.05 – 1033 (3 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 42.58 – 1101 (31 min)
53 ticks

Pullback to 42.25 – 1113 (43 min)
106 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.90 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.05 – stopped 15 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Report was all over the place in the first 15 sec, then settled down into a short 2nd peak reaction. As it dove then backed off, tighten the stop or exit immediately. It reversed to the R1 Pivot then fell. After that it stepped lower using the 50 SMA as resistance.