Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 03-13 (1 Min) 1.11.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

1/11/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 687.00
1st Peak @ 717.00 – 0703 (1 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 701.50 – 0714 (14 min)
62 ticks

2nd Peak @ 723.75 – 0756 (56 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 712.75 – 0848 (108 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report time shifted to 1200 Eastern for this and all future reports. Report Reaction caused a long spike of 120 ticks over 3 bars that completely changed the sentiment of the market as it had been selling off below the S3 Pivot and was at the LOD. The report drove it North through every measurable level of resistance to peak over 40 ticks above the R3 Pivot. After the first peak, it retreated to the R2 Pivot and 20 SMA in about 10 min, then engineered a long developing 2nd peak for another 27 ticks above the 1st peak nearly an hour after the report. I would be cautious trading later moves as you are in the afternoon session of Friday, but this was a very solid report. The final reversal after the 2nd peak yielded 44 ticks in about 50 min.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 9.28.2012

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

9/28/2012 Grain Stocks – Corn (0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 685.25
1st Peak @ 708.75 – 0831 (1 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 692.25 – 0832 (2 min)
66 ticks

Final Peak @ 742.75 – next day 1805 (5 min after open)
230 ticks

Reversal to 734.50 – next day 1904 (59 min after final peak)
33 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long spike of 94 ticks on the :01 bar that completely changed the sentiment of the market. The report drove it North through several levels of resistance to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot for 94 ticks. After the first peak, it retreated to the R1 Mid Pivot and 13 SMA on the :02 bar, then proceeded to step higher into an upward fan. It took the market ever higher until trading was halted due to a 10% gain in the session at 730.50. Hence the final peak of 230 ticks was attained on Sunday evening when the market was reopened 5 min after the open. Then the final reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in a little less than an hour.

ZC 09-12 (1 Min) 6.29.2012

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

6/29/2012 Grain Stocks – Corn (0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 633.25
1st Peak @ 615.50 – 0831 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 648.00 – 0840 (10 min)
130 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused an unsustainable short spike of 71 ticks on the :01 bar that hit the S2 Mid Pivot and retreated after about 10 sec. The report caused a follow on quick reversal that changed the polarity, yielding 130 ticks to extend the HOD and hit the R2 Pivot. After that it trended lower within a trend channel, oscillating lower with each cycle taking about an hour.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

May 262013

5/10/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 640.50
1201 Bar:

1st Peak @ 630.00 – 1201 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 643.00 – 1201 (1 min)
52 ticks

Settle @ 632.00 – 1201 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 636.50 – 1207 (7 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 625.00 – 1214 (14 min)
62 ticks

Final Reversal to 638.00 – 1318 (78 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 42 ticks, that was unsustainable crossing the 100/50 SMAs near the origin and bottoming on the S2 Pivot. After 6 sec of hovering near the S2 Pivot, it reversed upward for 52 ticks in the next 3 sec, then fell to settle near the earlier low as the bar expired. Prior to the report, the market had been correcting mildly upward in a tame manner. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 637.50 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 20 ticks if you had a profit target setup. Otherwise the quick reversal would have stopped you out with a 15 tick loss. This is the second time we have seen this type of reaction (see 11/9/12) as it goes one way, then reverses polarity quickly, but changes direction again to finish near its original peak, although the other occurrence allowed more time to capture the profit. I would recommend using an auto breakeven after 15 ticks of profit are achieved, then if you are quick, look for a short entry when it is at the S1 Mid Pivot. After the wild :01 bar, it reversed for 23 ticks 6 min later to the 13 SMA, then fell for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks 7 min later. Then the slow developing final reversal yielded 52 ticks in the next hour, eclipsing the 200 SMA and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.13

NG Storage Comments Off

May 252013

5/23/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 90B
Actual: 89B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 4.190 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.248 – 1031 (2 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 4.192 – 1032 (3 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an average but unsustainable long spike of 58 ticks that eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar then fell just as quickly leaving over 40 ticks on the bar naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.200 with no slippage on premature noise. It topped out at 4.204 on the :30 bar, so you could have closed out with 2-3 ticks, or waited for the :31 bar. If you waited, a profit target of 45 or less would have filled. Otherwise look to exit in between 4.220 and 4.230 as it was hovering. After the peak, the :32 bar saw a low of 56 ticks on the reversal. Then it attempted a 2nd peak but fell 7 ticks short of a double top at the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it fell to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA, then traded sideways.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.16.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 252013

5/16/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 99B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.000
1st Peak @ 3.942 – 1031 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 3.991 – 1033 (3 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.931 – 1035 (5 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 3.965 – 1039 (9 min)
34 ticks

Final Peak @3.916 – 1115 (45 min)
84 ticks

Final Reversal to 3.943 – 1133 (63 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Mildly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an average short spike of 58 ticks that bottomed on the :31 bar. It eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot but did not cross any SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.965 with 25 ticks of slippage. Then look to exit around breakeven as it was hovering near the fill point for 14 sec before it reversed. The reversal reclaimed 49 ticks, then fell after hitting the S2 Pivot for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks on the :35 bar. Then it reversed again for 34 ticks to nearly reach the 13 SMA. The final peak trickled down slowly for another 15 ticks in about 35 min. Then it reversed for only 17 ticks before settling down to trade sideways.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.9.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 252013

5/9/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 80B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.943
1st Peak @ 3.883 – 1031 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 3.996 – 1105 (35 min)
113 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.020 – 1202 (92 min)
137 ticks

Notes: Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an average short spike of 60 ticks that bottomed on the :31 bar after starting 2 sec prematurely. It targeted the S2 Mid Pivot but did not cross any SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.926 with 7 ticks of slippage. Then look to exit around 3.890 where it hovered for 13 sec. I used a 40 tick target which filled at 3.886. After that it reversed for 113 ticks in the next 34 min, then another 24 ticks in the following hour.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242013

5/23/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 347K
Actual: 340K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009859
1st Peak @ 0.009825 – 0832 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.009861 – 0845 (15 min)
36 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009871 – 0906 (36 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 7k jobs, causing a short spike of 34 ticks on 2 bars after the market had rallied slightly in the 10 min before the report. It crossed all 3 SMAs and the R3 Mid Pivot finding support at a short term barrier not penetrated in the last hour at 0.009827. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :30 bar at about 0.009854 with 1 tick of slippage on a slightly premature move. Then it popped back up to just below the stop loss and fell on the :31 bar. Look to exit at about the 100 SMA for 17 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed quickly for 36 ticks back to the origin in 15 min. Then it fell back to the R3 Mid Pivot before rallying again for an extended reversal of 10 more ticks 20 min later.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.9.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242013

5/9/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 333K
Actual: 323K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010128
1st Peak @ 0.010112 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.010124 – 0844 (14 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010061 – 0934 (64 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 0.010086 – 1029 (119 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10k jobs, causing a short spike of 16 ticks on 1 bar after the market had been trading sideways in a tight fist. It found support on the S1 Mid Pivot, and crossed the 50/100 SMAs at the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 0.010121 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait for it to target the S1 Mid Pivot for 6 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 12 ticks, then continued lower for a 2nd peak of 51 more ticks, bottoming in between the S3 Mid Pivot and the S3 Pivot about 1 hr later. Then it reversed slowly for only 25 ticks in the following hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 232013

5/2/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 346K
Actual: 324K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010213
1st Peak @ 0.010187 – 0831 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010165 – 0839 (9 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.010248 – 0931 (61 min)
83 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 18k jobs, causing a short spike of 26 ticks on 2 bars after a selloff had commenced about 30 min earlier. It found support on the S3 Mid Pivot, but did not cross any SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 0.010206 with 2 ticks of slippage, then either close out as the :31 bar is expiring, or wait for it to target the S3 Mid Pivot for 14 ticks. After the 1st peak, it pulled back about 9 ticks, then continued lower for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks at the S3 Pivot. After that, it reversed for 83 ticks in about 50 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA.

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