Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 339K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price and on the R3 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 12 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
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Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (below the 200 SMA) / 0.009798 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009828 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009836 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with retail sales, so we used a slightly larger 1st tier of 10-12 ticks. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the 6J failed to launch until the :32 bar with only 7 tick movement from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 23 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, nearly reaching the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 30 min back to the 100 SMA. Then it rebounded long, but was only able to achieve 2 ticks less than the 1st peak, before falling again.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 335K
Actual: 336K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009803 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 6 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009795 (match the low of the 0807 bar) / 0.009785 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009812 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009822 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with Core and regular CPI, but all reports matched the forecast. This caused a dull reaction of only 4 ticks departure from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. After the tame :31 bar, it fell about 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then rebounded to the R1 Mid Pivot/50 SMA before falling again to the OOD about 35 min after the report.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 336K
Actual: 323K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009721 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009694 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009714 – 0830:45 (1 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.009694 – 0901 (31 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.009713 – 1023 (113 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009710 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 0.009701 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009731 (just below the 20 SMA) / 0.009740 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 13K less jobs than the forecast. This caused a large short unsustainable spike of 27 ticks departure from the anchor point as it crossed the S3 Pivot and hit the S4 Mid Pivot. The short move would have filled both tiers of the long entries at 0.009710 and 0.009701, then fallen an additional 7 ticks before retreating to surrender most of the drop. With an average position long position of 0.009705, look to exit en between 0.009712 and 0.009714 with about 14 – 18 total ticks when it hovered in the middle of the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it trickled down to a double bottom after 30 min on the S4 Mid Pivot again before reversing for 19 ticks in the next 80 min, crossing the S3 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 334K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009748 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009733 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009742 – 0830:36 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.009733 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009744 – 0850 (20 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009727 – 0922 (52 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009737 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009729 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009760 (on the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009769 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 19K less jobs than the forecast coupled with a mildly bullish retail sales report. This caused a short spike of 15 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the PP Pivot closer to the bottom. This would have filled your inner long entry with 4 ticks to spare, then backed off to hover between 0.009741 and 42 for 10 sec allowing for an exit with 4-5 ticks quickly. If you let it continue, you would have seen it fall for a double bottom twice after the fill, then reverse for 11 ticks in the next 18 min. This would have allowed for a patient 7 ticks to be captured near the 50 SMA. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks, crossing the OOD and S1 Mid Pivot after 30 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 112014

3/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 327K
Actual: 320K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009772 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
0831 bar span 0.009771 – 0.009768 (1 min)
3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009764 (just below the 100 SMA) / 0.009754 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009781 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009790 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in strong but close to the forecast with 7K less jobs than the forecast with no other news. This caused a dull 0831 bar of only 3 ticks movement on the OOD and 13 SMA. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. It eventually drifted a few ticks down to hit the 200 SMA, then bounced for about 10 ticks in 9 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

3/27/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 326K
Actual: 311K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009775 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009767 – 0830:16 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009773 – 0833:39 (4 min)
6 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009786 – 0848 (18 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009765 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009756 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009784 (in between the 100 / 200 SMAs) / 0.009794 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in strong with 15K less jobs than the forecast along with the Final GDP reading that came is 0.1% disappointing to offset. This caused a barely dull 0831 bar that fell 8 ticks in 16 sec. Even with an 8 tick setting, it would have touched the inner tier but not filled as the Ask did not get there. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. After the short move it reversed for 6 ticks in a little more than 3 min, and another 13 ticks in the next 14 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.3.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

4/3/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 319K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009624 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
0831 bar span 0.009620 – 0.009625 (1 min)
5 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009614 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009605 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009634 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009644 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in weak and close enough to the forecast with 7K more jobs than the forecast along with the Trade Balance reading that was also disappointing. Still this was not enough to cause an impulse as the :30 bar drifted lower 4 ticks and then the move was long and muted for only 5 ticks after to remain near the anchor point. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. After the initial move it did not venture far from the SMAs in the next 35 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

4/10/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 314K
Actual: 300K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009842 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009828 – 0830:02 (1 min)
-14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009835 – 0830:27 (1 min)
7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009817 – 0833 (3 Min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.009829 – 0838 (8 Min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009810 – 0904 (34 Min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.009834 – 0956 (86 Min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009832 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009822 (just above the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009851 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009860 (in between the R2 Pivot / HOD)

Notes: Report came in strong with 14K less jobs than the forecast at 300K along with the Import Prices reading that came is 0.4% stronger than expected. This caused a 14 tick short spike in 2 sec that would have filled your inner tier long entry, then allowed an exit with only about 2 ticks before it would have slowly gone against you and headed for a 2nd peak. In this case, notice the consistently matching news and the hovering for 20 sec and safely exit with a few ticks. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 ticks on the :33 bar, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks 5 min later and fell for a final peak of 7 more ticks in the next 26 min, nearly reaching the OOD and S1 Pivot. Then it climbed for 24 ticks in 52 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.17.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

4/17/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009787 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009766 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-21 ticks

Reversal to 0.009785 – 0830:24 (1 min)
19 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009795 – 0918 (48 Min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009777 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009767 (on the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009796 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.009806 (in between the R3/R3 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in strong with 12K less jobs than the forecast with no other news. This caused a 21 tick short spike in 1 sec that fell to the S2 Pivot and quickly reversed back to near the origin. This would have filled both of your long entry tiers, then allowed an exit with about 24 total ticks at almost any time. Perfect setup for this trade and easy exit. After the reversal, it continued to reverse for 10 more ticks in the next 47 min to the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA as volume was light.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 202014

5/1/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 317K
Actual: 344K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009775 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009787 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009778 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009774 – 0858 (28 Min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009766 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009756 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009785 (just above the PP Pivot/200 SMA) / 0.009795 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with 27K more jobs lost than the forecast with no other significant news. This caused a 12 tick long spike in 1 sec that rose to cross the PP Pivot, 200 SMA, and OOD then quickly backed off for 9 ticks in 21 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry tier, then allowed an exit with about 5-6 ticks quickly on the 100 SMA, or about 8 ticks later. Perfect setup for this trade and easy exit. After the reversal, it traded sideways between the LOD and 100 SMA.

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