6/21/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7
Actual: -16.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 80.43
1st Peak @ 80.20 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 79.82 – 0405 (5 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 80.34 – 0413 (13 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast causing a moderate initial 1 candle spike, but a much larger 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Bearish sentiment was aided by a slightly negative existing home sales report. Market was consolidating prior to the report and the market was below all 3 of the SMAs at the origin. The reversal found resistance at the 80.30 area as that area was tested several times in the next 45 minute and held firm.

4/19/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 12.1
Actual:8.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.00
1st Peak @ 102.51 – 0406 (6 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.47 – 0410 (10 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 102.89 – 0425 (25 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing a healthy 6 candle spike, a small 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Bearish sentiment was aided by a strongly negative existing home sales report. Market was consolidating prior to the report and the market was below all the SMAs except for the 100 SMA near the origin. After crossing that no level of support had to be crossed. This aided the steady short fall without reversing for several minutes. With the long tails at the 102.50 level, this is a good reversal entry point. Reversal yielded 42 ticks in 15 min just crossing the 50 SMA before pulling back.

2/16/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 9.0
Actual:10.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.87
1st Peak @ 102.26 – 0502 (2 min)
39 ticks

2nd Peak @102.26 – 0506 (6 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 102.00 – 0510 / 0514 (10 min) / 101.90 – 0526 (26 min)
26 ticks (2x bottom) / 36 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast causing a larger than expected spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . The 0401 candle crossed the 50 SMA and PP line upward at about the halfway point, which often causes a pullback and full reversal. SInce the 0401 candle closed 1 tick below its max value, it is worth waiting to see what the 0402 does. It retraced only 3 ticks before rising another 20. I would get out when it hovered at the 100.25 level for more than 8 sec.

12/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 5.1
Actual:10.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.97
1st Peak @ 96.18 – 0501 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 95.40 – 0511 (11 min)
78 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast causing a meager spike and huge reversal . The 0401 candle crossed the 50 SMA about halfway up, thus still had a pull to reverse the direction. That would have been my cue to close out above the 50. The large drop after is abnormal with the positive report, but this is close enough to Christmas that trade volume is likely low created strange reactions.

10/20/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -9.0
Actual:8.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 86.81
1st Peak @ 87.36 – 0401 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 86.75 – 0408 (8 min) /
61 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and larger reversal . The reversal below the pre-report value, and the nature of the second rise to fall short of the 0401 spike and take 15 min to happen keep this from being a SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK case, although if the spike had been greater, it could have been. When the 0401 spike crossed the 100 SMA and the 200 SMA (halfway up), it had to pull back. If the spike had been another 20 to 30 ticks higher, then the pull of the 200 to retrace would have been less, and a 2nd peak at about 0405-0408 would have likely occurred.