8/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 133’01
1st Peak @ 133’03 – 0831 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 0831 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’22 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was mostly matching with a 0.1% better than expected reading on the core, and mild upward revisions on previous reports. This caused a muted reaction that did not stray more than 4 ticks from the origin as it also had to contend with the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then stopped out with the opposite entry at 129’31 for -4 ticks. After the :31 bar, it stalled before falling again on the :33 bar for another 9 ticks as it extended the LOD. Then it pulled back and traded sideways between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot for over an hour until it was able to extend the LOD a few more ticks.

5/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.5%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009826
1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0832 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.009845 – 0954 (84 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the markets with a match on the core reading, much better than expected regular reading, and a slight downward revision on the regular reading. This caused a short spike of 24 ticks on 2 bars that crossed the S1 Pivot and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009821 with 1 tick of slippage, then with no clear level of support present, look to exit when the bar expires for about 18 ticks. The next few bars hovered near the low, then it reversed for 43 ticks in about 80 min, eclipsing the PP Pivot.

3/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 1.0%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010447
1st Peak @ 0.010410 – 0831 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 0.010441 – 0843 (13 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010393 – 0946 (76 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.010422 – 1006 (96 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast on all fronts. This caused a short spike of 37 ticks on the :31 bar that reached the S1 Mid Pivot and the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010441 with 2 ticks of slippage. After it smashed through the PP Pivot and OOD, stay in and see where it settles. Then look to exit near the LOD with 25+ ticks. After the peak, it achieved a double bottom 5 min later, then reversed for 31 ticks back to the 50 SMA. Then it stepped lower for a slow developing 2nd peak of 54 ticks in the next hr, eclipsing the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed back up to the 100 SMA and OOD for 29 ticks in 20 min.

1/15/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.011306
1st Peak @ 0.011292 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.011251 – 1015 (105 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.011321 – 1119 (169 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive on both the core and actual reading offset by a mild downward revision on the core previous reading. PPI and Empire State Manufacturing broke at the same time and were negative. The Retail Sales results won out to cause a 14 tick short spike on 2 bars that crossed the R3 Pivot near the origin and 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.011302 with no slippage, then look to exit at the 200 SMA for about 7 ticks. After a small retreat, the market slowly trended lower for another 41 ticks in the next 100 min to eclipse the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 70 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and eclipsing the R3 Pivot.

10/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.012713
1st Peak @ 0.012700 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.012725 – 0856 (26 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive on both the core and actual reading including an upward revision on the previous readings. Empire State manufacturing broke at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market had just hit the LOD and was in trending lower, the short spike was relatively small with the results only delivering 13 ticks as it crossed the S4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.012708 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 6 ticks as the low was established and it hovered. The oversold sentiment and the negative Empire State report caused the reversal to take over quickly and make a long move to eclipse the 200 SMA and S3 Pivot 25 min later for 25 ticks.