1/12/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:-0.2%
Previous revision:+0.1% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.11
1st Peak @ 101.77 – 0333 (3 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.52 – 0346 (16 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 102.13 – 0412 (42 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of forecast causing a strong downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike had to fight through the R1 line (long tail on the 0231 candle) then fell without much resistance until 0346. Reports broke at same time as the weekly unemployment claims report which was strongly negative at 399K, adding some of the momentum to the spike. I would probably trade this report as unemployment claims would be overshadowed by retail sales.

11/15/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.6%
Previous revision:-0.1% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.5%
Previous Revision: none
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.29
1st Peak @ 98.53 – 0331 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0341 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.19 – 0356 (26 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in above forecast, but previous revision on core report was slightly lower. This caused a healthy spike with a good reversal between the 1st and 2nd peaks and after the 2nd peak. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was moderately negative, taking away some of the momentum from the spike (the long wick on the 0331 candle and full reversal on 0332 candle). I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect. Either close when you see falling from the peak on the 1st candle, or wait and ride the heat until the 2nd peak 10-15 min later.

9/14/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.1%
Previous revision:-0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual:0.0%
Previous Revision:-0.2% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.36
1st Peak @ 90.17 – 0231 (1 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.07 – 0233 (3 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 90.54 – 0246 (16 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a moderate downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike had to fight through the 200 SMA (long tail on the 0231 candle) then the reversal peaked just above the 100 and 50 SMAs. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was mildly positive, taking away some of the momentum from the spike. I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect.