6/13/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.750 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.772 – 1030 (1 min)
22 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.776 – 1031 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 3.733 – 1031 (2 min)
43 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.850 – 1205 (95 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 3.797 – 1406 (216 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report saw a premature long spike of 22 ticks about 8 sec before the news, then after the release, it gained another handful of ticks before reversing for 43 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.764 with about 4 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing of 8 sec early, it is not news based, but leaves little time to capture any profit before the real spike. Close near breakeven (+/- 5 ticks) before the reversal on the matching report hits the stop loss. After the reversal crossed the major SMAs and nearly hit the S1 Pivot, it popped back up for a stepping peaks, using the 20 SMA as support and achieving 100 ticks in about 90 min. Then it corrected back to give up 53 ticks in 2 hrs, crossing the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA.

6/27/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.688 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.734 – 1030 (1 min)
46 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.614 – 1031 (2 min)
120 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.563 – 1138 (68 min)
171 ticks

Reversal to 3.597 – 1244 (134 min)
34 ticks

Notes Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a healthy premature long spike just a few sec before the report that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the OOD, then a consistent news based spike that fell 120 ticks on the next 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.698 with no slippage a few min before the premature spike as it was maneuvering. I left it on the chart with a 20 tick profit target that easily filled before the 1st peak sent it south. After the 1st peak, it turned into a downward fan achieving a final peak of 51 more ticks hitting the S3 Pivot in a little over an hour. Then it traded sideways, only able to recover 34 ticks in the next hour. A 20-25 tick profit target and a breakeven setting of 20 seems to work well for these reports.

7/11/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 80B
Actual: 82B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.699 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.640 – 1033 (4 min)
59 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.574 – 1109 (40 min)
125 ticks

Reversal to 3.606 – 1124 (53 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a short spike without a premature move as the :30 bar was transitioning to the :31 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs, bottoming on the S1 Mid Pivot and the 200 SMA . With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.679 with about 10 ticks of slippage. Look to exit on the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot with about 30 ticks. The internal retracement as it was chopping would have been accommodated with the 20 tick stop. After the 1st peak, it struggled to go lower for a few min, then fell for a 2nd peak of 66 more ticks in the next 30 min, never crossing the 13/20 SMAs and nearly reaching the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in 13 min back to the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA.

7/25/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 44B
Actual: 41B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.711 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.759 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 3.650 – 1034 (5 min)
109 ticks

Pullback to 3.678 – 1040 (10 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike with no premature move that hit the R1 Pivot then ended up retreating as the bar was expiring. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.731 with 10 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and hover between 3.745 and 3.755. A 20 tick profit target would have filled easily. It kept chopping sideways until about 15 sec into the bar, then reversed dramatically. If you left the stop loss at 20 ticks and did not exit, you would have been stopped out during the reversal with low slippage, but the loss would have been preventable. The reversal continued into the :34 bar for 109 ticks total as it hit the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back up to give back 28 ticks in 5 min as it hit the 13 SMA before falling lower, then chopping sideways.

8/8/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 74B
Actual: 96B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.230 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.129 – 1031 (1 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 3.232 – 1033 (3 min)
103 ticks

Pullback to 3.176 – 1038 (8 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.275 – 1103 (33 min)
99 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a short spike with a 15 tick consistent premature move that hit the S3 Mid Pivot, then retreated strongly, leaving 46 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.216 with about 4 ticks of slippage on the premature move about 38 sec into the :30 bar, then seen it back off and leave you between 5-10 ticks in the red as the candle expired. In this case you could have closed the order out with about a 10 tick loss or let it play out with the 20 tick stop positioned near the price action to take a potential loss. If you let it ride, after about 5 sec, it would have been chopping between 45 and 70 ticks of profit, roughly between the S2 and S3 Mid Pivots. A target placed at 3.140 would have easily filled with 76 ticks. After it hit the S3 Mid Pivot, it rebounded quickly, returning to the origin for 103 ticks in 2 min. Then it pulled back 44 ticks to eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 99 ticks in 25 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. High volatility on this report.