US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 9.2
Actual: -6.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’30
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1001 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 1005 (5 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’15 – 1043 (43 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast with a delta of 15.5 pts, causing a long spike on the ZB that started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs, crossed the 200 SMA and nearly reached the PP Pivot before retreating. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 133’00 with no slippage then immediately shot up to the PP Pivot and hovered. As it hovered for about 18 sec between 133’04 and 133’07, it would have given ample opportunity to exit with 4-6 ticks. Unfortunately the move was not sustained and retreated on the back end of the :01 bar. It reversed for 10 ticks in 4 min, pulled back briefly to hit the 200 SMA, then fell further for another 14 ticks in the next 38 min, crossing the S1 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 335K
Actual: 336K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009803 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 6 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009795 (match the low of the 0807 bar) / 0.009785 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009812 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009822 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with Core and regular CPI, but all reports matched the forecast. This caused a dull reaction of only 4 ticks departure from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. After the tame :31 bar, it fell about 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then rebounded to the R1 Mid Pivot/50 SMA before falling again to the OOD about 35 min after the report.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.01M
Actual: 0.97M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.54M
Actual: 0.31M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.89M
Actual: -0.34M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 102.74
1st Peak @ 102.82 – 1031 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 102.58 – 1032 (2 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. This news seemed to be mostly balanced to even the scales between the bulls and the bears to cause a dull reaction. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 19 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 16 ticks from the origin as it crossed the 200 SMA. Then it transitioned into large swings: a rally of 37 ticks in 9 min, then a drop of 55 ticks in 5 min, then a rally of 64 ticks in 14 min, before settling down to trade in the range it was before the news.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.25.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 80.2
Actual: 78.1
Previous revision: -1.3 to 79.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009794
1st Peak @ 0.009808 – 1001 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 1026 (26 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 2.1 points. This caused a 14 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was tame but unsustained, as it started on the R3 Pivot after a 23 tick rally in the last 25 min and crossed the R4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.009799 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hit 0.009808 before chopping between 0.009797 and 0.009805 up to 53 sec into the :01 bar. Look to exit with 5-6 ticks just above the R4 Mid Pivot. Due to the overbought condition and the strong resistance of the R4 Mid Pivot, it reversed quickly and steadily over the next 25 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks. Then it chopped sideways for the better part of an hour.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.19/2.7
Actual: 2.11/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’00 – 1312 (11 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’28 – 1346 (45 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1504 (123 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.11 continued to fall back after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 2-3 ticks after it fell through the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late on the :04 bar then given you 2-3 ticks of profit on the :07 – :14 bars where it stalled for a few min. After a 2 tick reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks back to the origin in the next 80 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/27/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.3% to -1.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -4.2%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009806 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009812 – 0831:59 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009791 – 0845 (15 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0857 (27 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009806 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009799 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009829 (just below the HOD) / 0.009837 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 1.2%, while the regular reading fell short of the forecast by 0.3% and weekly unemployment claims came in 15k worse than expected. With the mixed news, the bullish news won the influence battle to cause an 11 ticks short move that peaked not near any barrier. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009806, then seen it only retreat 6 ticks as it hovered tamely between the fill point and 6 ticks of profit. Look to exit with 4-5 ticks after 2 min when it appears to be unable to go higher. It is odd that the claims and regular reading did not cause a larger reversal, but we aware of what the market is giving you. After about 4 min of hovering, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 8 ticks, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.28.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/28/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.6%
Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 132’27
1st Peak@ 132’24 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 132’28 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

2nd peak @ 132’23 – 0833 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a dull reaction for a short move of only 3 ticks followed by a 4 tick reversal in 4 sec. Contributing to the dull reaction, the 200 SMA ,100 SMA, and S2 Mid Pivot were all within 1 tick of the origin. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 132’25 with no slippage, then you would have seen it hover between Breakeven and 2 ticks in the red for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit at BE or with a 1 tick loss on the dull reaction. After the 1st peak, it was able to fall 1 more tick for a minor 2nd peak on the :33 bar to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot about 15 min later.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 2.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.24M
Actual: 0.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.99M
Actual: -2.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.23M
Actual: 0.34M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.37
1st Peak @ 102.70 – 1031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 102.35 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.87 – 1038 (8 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 102.37 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Negligible gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news caused a 33 tick long spike on the :31 bar that was shortly sustained as it crossed the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 102.51 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up about 20 ticks and quickly retreat back to your fill point to hover. This is where a preselected profit target for 10-15 ticks would have been very prudent. Otherwise the best exit would have been with about 3-5 ticks later in the bar. After the :31 bar, the reversal took it down to the origin for 35 ticks as the distillate gain weighed in. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 50 ticks in the next 6 min before falling 50 ticks just before the top of the hour to the 200/100 SMAs. After that it achieved a double top 20 min later then backed off and chopped sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 min) 3.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 192014

3/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 81.9
Actual: 79.9
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009867 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009874 – 0955:51 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009862 – 0956:49 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009871 – 1001 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009850 – 1010 (15 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009859 (just above the low of 0946 bar) / 0.009852 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009875 (above the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009882 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately lower than the forecast by 2.0 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it attempted to cross all 3 major SMAs, but could not scale the 100 SMA. That would have fallen short of the inner short order and exceeded the 20 sec limit, so cancel the order. Interestingly, the price moved 4 ticks lower than our anchor point after the deployment, so a shift of position 2-4 ticks lower on the setup would have possibly seen a fill. It is also a safe report to move the tier in to an area when you see it hovering. In this case it hovered at 0.009870 for about 10 sec, so a shift down to 0.009872 or 0.009873 would have worked out. Then it reversed quickly for 12 ticks about 1 min later. After that it pulled back long for 9 ticks to reach the 50 SMA 4 min later before reversing for 21 ticks in the next 9 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 159K
Actual: 139K
Previous revision: -48K to 127K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’06
1st Peak @ 132’13 – 0817 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 132’05 – 0825 (10 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 20K jobs along with a large 48K downward revision to the previous report. This caused a smaller long reaction that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the 100/200 SMAs, the OOD, and collided with the S1 Mid Pivot for 7 ticks on the : bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 132’10 with 1 tick slippage, then seen it hover between the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. The prudent exit would have been at 132’12 with 2 ticks on the S1 Mid Pivot after seeing the hovering. After the :01 bar, it continued to hover above the 200 SMA for 5 more min before falling back to the origin on the reversal on the next 3 bars.

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