4/15/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 91.9
Actual: 89.7
Previous Revision: +1.0 to 91.0
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0091910
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.0091990 – 1000:12 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.0091950 – 1000:39 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.0092015 – 1000:55 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.0091975 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.0092210 – 1021 (21 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.0092060 – 1037 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.0091880 (No Pivot / SMA near) / 0.0091830 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.0091945 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.0091985 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – 0.0091945 and 0.0091985 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.0091950 – 6 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.0091950 (just above the 200 SMA) and 0.0091920 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled in a staggered manner as it stepped higher in 12 sec. Then you would have had a 10 sec window to exit with 2-6 total ticks after 30 sec. If you did not exit there, it would have gone against you then come back to hover about 4-6 ticks in the red. Then it claimed a 2nd peak after 20 min to the R2 Pivot followed by a reversal to the 50 SMA.

2/12/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.6
Actual: 90.7
Previous Revision: -1.3 to 92.0
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008878
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008870 – 0959:53 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008889 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008856 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008871 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008863 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008885 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008894 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot – on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 0.008871 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.008888 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008885 (inner short tier)

Notes: Nice inner tier fill was a bit premature then the news drove the reaction long to fill the inner short tier for about 14 ticks. After that it fell 33 ticks in the next 30 min.

3/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 81.9
Actual: 79.9
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009867 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009874 – 0955:51 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009862 – 0956:49 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009871 – 1001 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009850 – 1010 (15 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009859 (just above the low of 0946 bar) / 0.009852 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009875 (above the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009882 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately lower than the forecast by 2.0 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it attempted to cross all 3 major SMAs, but could not scale the 100 SMA. That would have fallen short of the inner short order and exceeded the 20 sec limit, so cancel the order. Interestingly, the price moved 4 ticks lower than our anchor point after the deployment, so a shift of position 2-4 ticks lower on the setup would have possibly seen a fill. It is also a safe report to move the tier in to an area when you see it hovering. In this case it hovered at 0.009870 for about 10 sec, so a shift down to 0.009872 or 0.009873 would have worked out. Then it reversed quickly for 12 ticks about 1 min later. After that it pulled back long for 9 ticks to reach the 50 SMA 4 min later before reversing for 21 ticks in the next 9 min.

5/16/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 84.7
Actual: 81.8
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009848 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009854 – 0955:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009851 – 0955:16 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009857 – 0956 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009845 – 1002 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009862 – 1010 (15 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009847 – 1052 (57 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009840 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009833 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009856 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009864 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 2.9 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 6 ticks as it matched the high from 13 min earlier. That would have fallen short of the inner short order by 2 tick after the initial burst. It did not leave an opportunity to move the order closer as it was backing off quickly and not close enough to the tier to begin. Interestingly, if you had left the order on the chart, the later push on the :56 bar to cross the 200 SMA would have been a perfect entry for the short order. The reversal fell 12 ticks to match the low just before the news in 5 min. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to reach the R1 Mid Pivot after 8 min. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 42 min to the OOD.

7/18/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.5
Actual: 81.3
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009866 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009866 – 0.009867 – 0831 (1 min)
)))1 tick
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009858 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009851 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009874 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009880 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 2.2 points causing no reaction as the :56 bar barely moved. With no impulse, It did not leave an opportunity to move the order closer either, so cancel the order.