US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016

Feb 212016

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_3_2016

2/3/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.1
Actual: 53.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008436
1st Peak @ 0.008464 – 1001:50 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.008444 – 1006 (6 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008522 – 1031 (31 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 0.008462 – 1048 (48 min)
60 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008439 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008463 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008452 (in between the R4 / R4 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Bullish report was assisted by a strong uptrend in the market to deliver a large 1st and final peak. The 1st peak reached the R4 Pivot, then once breached, no resistance barrier is left. Due to the large move from 1028 – 1031, it reversed strongly.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 212016

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_1_2016

2/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 48.2
Previous revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008283
1st Peak @ 0.008289 – 1000:42 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008294 – 1003 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008275 – 1014 (14 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Only moved 2 ticks away from the origin until 22 sec after the release, so cancel the order on the dull move. It eventually gained 6 ticks then another 5 ticks on a 2nd peak after 3 min before reversing as the overall long trend found resistance after crossing the R1 Pivot with the R2 Mid Pivot looming above.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 282014

Caption for 2/12:
2/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.01/2.7
Actual: 2.80/2.5
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 132’06 (1301)
Only 1 tick of movement through the 1304 bar.

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell back below 3.00 to be more consistent with the range of the last 6 months. This caused the ZB to yawn with no impulse as the 50 and 100 SMAs kept it reigned in from the top. Fortunately with JOBB, you would not have filled with a 2 tick bracket, so cancel the order. After a small 2 tick bump long that could not escape the 100 SMA, it fell 6 ticks to the S2 Pivot and LOD.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 282014

2/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.6
Actual: 3.69/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1302 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell quite a bit from the last auction and consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. The bid to cover ratio was quite a bit lower signaling lower demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 7 ticks as it only crossed the HOD. It was briefly sustained and left 4 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 1-3 ticks as it did not linger at the top for more than 3 sec. Then it reversed quickly to the origin in the next 3 min. After that it attempted to rally and was only able to climb within 1 tick of the 1st peak and trade sideways.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1.12.2016

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 152016

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1_12_2016

1/12/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 349.75
1st Peak @ 363.75 – 1201:44 (2 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 353.00 – 1204 (4 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1207 (7 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 356.00 – 1209 (9 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 359.75 – 1217 (86 min)
50 ticks

Expected Fill: 351.00 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 363.50 – 50 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 360.50 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Slow developing but stable long spike. It spent the first 50 sec unable to breach the R1 Pivot. This was unusual for a January Grain stocks. But then it climbed about 40 ticks in 55 sec to eclipse the R3 Pivot. With the big reversal, a long entry on or after the bounce off of the 13 SMA would have been prudent.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.65M
Actual: 3.27M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.05M
Actual: -1.85M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.28M
Actual: -0.73M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.20
1st Peak @ 101.03 – 1031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 101.21 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.85 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.37 – 1046 (16 min)
52 ticks

Final Peak @ 100.64 – 1106 (36 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 100.92 – 1114 (44 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. The first time in a month that the distillate inventory beat the forecast caused a muted reaction initially that ended up in a bearish move overall. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 36 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 17 ticks as it finally broke through the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks before falling for 35 ticks to cross the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 52 ticks to reach the HOD before it fell for a final peak of 56 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 28 ticks in 8 min and chopped sideways before trending lower.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 012014

Caption for 2/13:
2/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.1%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’27 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 2 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’24/23 (in the middle of SMAs & just below R2 Mid Pivot) / 132’19 (on R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’31 (on the R2 Pivot ) / 133’03 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the ZB failed to launch until the :32 bar. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 5 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, eclipsing the R2 Pivot, followed by a 4 tick reversal to the 13 SMA on the :36 bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :37 bar. After that it reversed for 7 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA about 30 min later.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 339K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price and on the R3 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 12 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (below the 200 SMA) / 0.009798 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009828 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009836 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with retail sales, so we used a slightly larger 1st tier of 10-12 ticks. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the 6J failed to launch until the :32 bar with only 7 tick movement from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 23 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, nearly reaching the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 30 min back to the 100 SMA. Then it rebounded long, but was only able to achieve 2 ticks less than the 1st peak, before falling again.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 022014

2/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 80.6
Actual: 81.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009827 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009820 – 0955:47 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009824 – 0956:40 (2 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009818 – 0958 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009827 – 1005 (10 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009819 (match the low of 0938 bar) / 0.009812 (match the low of 0847)
Short entries – 0.009836 (on the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009843 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in modestly higher than the forecast by 0.6 points causing a tame short impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs. That would have fallen short of the inner long order, so cancel the order. It toyed with the 100/200 SMA on the :57 bar, then fell for 2 more ticks to match the 0938 low before reversing 9 ticks in the next 7 min. Overall dull report with little offset from the forecast.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.19.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/19/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’05
1st Peak @ 133’10 – 1401 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 1403 (3 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Now that the FED is a few meetings into scaling back QE3, and the mystery is gone, the reactions are getting smaller. The minutes basically stated that we had both good and bad economic news, but nothing to cause the FED to deviate from the pace. This stance seems to be fairly rigid with little events able to meet the threshold of a deviation. This caused the bonds to rally only 5 ticks, as the minutes were unsurprising, followed by a 13 tick reversal that happened quickly. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’07 with no slippage 11 sec into the :01 bar. On non statistical news like this, that is normal. It would have popped up and hit the PP Pivot / 50 SMA after 19 sec, then started to retreat. If you were quick, you would have been able to exit with 1-2 ticks after 5 sec. Otherwise, look to move the stop up to 2 ticks and get out there. After the peak, it fell 13 ticks from the back end of the :01 bar to the :03 bar, crossing the S1 Pivot. After that, it pulled back to the S1 Mid Pivot, then fell to trade sideways on the S1 Pivot. Due to the changing trend and low probability of the FED to rock the boat, we will shift this and the FOMC statement reports to the Trap Trade approach in the near short term.

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