US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 232016

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -170B
Actual: -152B
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.988
1st Peak @ 2.003 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.983 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.026 – 1042 (12 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.005 – 1049 (19 min)
21 ticks

Double Top @ 2.026 – 1054 (24 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1113 (43 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.999 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 2.001 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.020 – just above the S1 Mid Pivot

Notes: Dull move to barely get a fill long then hover around the fill point for 17 sec for an exit near breakeven. After a reversal it climbed for a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks as it eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then a double top and reversal.

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 232016

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 1_28_2016

1/28/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -215B
Actual: -211B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.110
Whipsaw between 2.088 and 2.149 – 1030:11 (1 min)
61 ticks span

Pullback to 2.117 – 1033 (3 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 2.145 – 1047 (2 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 2.123 – 1055 (25 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 2.170 – 1113 (43 min)
51 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.095 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.021 – 26 tick loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Whipsaw initially that developed into a slight long trend to step higher.

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.21.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 232016

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1_21_2016

1/21/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -180B
Actual: -178B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.174
1st Peak @ 2.100 – 1031:44 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 2.127 – 1035 (5 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.080 – 1047 (17 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 2.183 – 1208 (98 min)
103 ticks

Pullback to 2.126 – 1241 (131 min)
57 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.161 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.101 – 60 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.132 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Stable short spike offered a low slippage fill as it stepped lower due to major SMAs spread out. After a 2nd peak eclipsed the S1 Pivot, it reversed slowly for over 100 ticks in about 80 min.

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.14.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 232016

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1_14_2016

1/14/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -152B
Actual: -168B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.227
1st Peak @ 2.173 – 1030:11 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 2.201 – 1030:21 (1 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.166 – 1033 (3 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 2.189 – 1038 (8 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.202 (short)
Slippage: 15 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.174 – 28 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.180 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Stable short spike eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot and LOD then oscillated sideways mostly below the S3 Mid Pivot.

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1.7.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 232016

NG 02-16 (1 Min) 1_7_2016

1/7/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -95B
Actual: -113B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.316
1st Peak @ 2.378 – 1030:39 (1 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 2.358 – 1036 (6 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.394 – 1103 (33 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 2.368 – 1118 (48 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.429 – 1202 (92 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 2.396 – 1210 (100 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.339 (long)
Slippage: 13 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.377 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.355 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: A late peaking reaction as the R1 Pivot held it lower for a little while. Due to the larger offset it would be safe to be patient. It stepped higher for the next 100 min as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 232016

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2_3_2016

2/3/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.76M
Actual: 7.79M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.70M
Actual: 5.94M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.10M
Actual: -0.78M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.35
1st Peak @ 29.81 – 1030:34 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 30.18 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.74 – 1036 (6 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 31.23 – 1047 (17 min)
149 ticks

Pullback to 30.57 – 1051 (21 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 31.70 – 1102 (32 min)
113 ticks

Pullback to 30.98 – 1109 (39 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 30.18 (short)
Slippage: 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 29.82 – 36 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 29.85 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike on broad based supply sided news. After the small 2nd peak it found support on the OOD and reversed strongly. As it stepped higher, it used the 13/20 SMAs as support.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 232016

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.55M
Actual: -0.75M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.42M
Actual: 1.26M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.57M
Actual: 1.28M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 28.06
1st Peak @ 28.98 – 1030:58 (1 min)
92 ticks

Reversal to 28.62 – 1032 (2 min)
36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.22 – 1033 (3 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 27.86 – 1044 (14 min)
136 ticks

Pullback to 28.38 – 1051 (21 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 27.48 – 1139 (69 min)
90 ticks

Expected Fill: 28.20 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 28.97 – 77 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 28.68 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable long spike due to the rare draw on crude. Still after a 2nd peak it collapsed strongly in 11 min to the 100 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1.27.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 222016

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1_27_2016

1/27/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.28M
Actual: 8.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.55M
Actual: 3.46M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.94M
Actual: -4.06M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.66
1st Peak @ 31.13 – 1030:24 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 30.66 – 1030:54 (1 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 31.76 – 1046 (16 min)
110 ticks

Reversal to 31.08 – 1057 (27 min)
68 ticks

Final Peak @ 32.84 – 1221 (111 min)
218 ticks

Reversal to 31.82 – 1319 (169 min)
102 ticks

Expected Fill: 30.83 (long)
Slippage: 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 31.12 – 29 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 31.02 (just above the 100/50 SMAs)

Notes: Another long reaction in spite of supply sided news. It found resistance above the 100/50 SMAs and S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit as it hovered with at least 20 ticks. After a reversal, turned into a long trend over the next 2 hrs for over 200 ticks riding the 13 SMA.

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1.21.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 222016

CL 03-16 (1 Min) 1_21_2016

1/21/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.81M
Actual: 3.98M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.38M
Actual: 4.56M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.13M
Actual: -1.03M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 28.39
1st Peak @ 28.63 – 1100:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 28.29 – 1101:00 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.41 – 1109 (9 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 28.92 – 1113 (13 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 30.25 – 1209 (69 min)
186 ticks

Reversal to 29.53 – 1225 (30 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 28.55 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 28.55 – breakeven (likely exit 28.47 – 8 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 28.90 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Small initial move that would have hovered at the fill point for 5 sec before slipping away. Tighten the stop to less than 10 ticks. After the initial reaction, it turned into a long trend that gained nearly 200 ticks in a little more than an hour as it rode the 13 SMA upward.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.3.2016

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Feb 212016

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_3_2016

2/3/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 193K
Actual: 057K
Previous revision: +10K to 267K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9473.0
1st Peak @ 9498.5 – 0816:09 (2 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 9455.0 – 0826 (11 min)
87 ticks

Final Peak @ 9574.0 – 0923 (68 min)
202 ticks

Reversal to 9346.0 – 1031 (136 min)
456 ticks

Expected Fill: 9476.5 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 9497.0 – 41 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9493.0 (35 ticks)

Notes: Large moves spanning over 2 hrs after the report.

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