Prelim GDP | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Feb 282016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_26_2016

2/26/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 166’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’03 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’14 – 0843 (13 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 165’26 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’30 (No SMA / Pivot near)/ 165’27 (above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 166’08 (just below the 50 SMA) / 166’11 (in between the 50 and 100 SMAs)

Expected Fill: 165’30 and 165’27 – both long entries
Best Initial Exit: 166’02 – 11 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’03 (just below the S1 Pivot and the origin) – move lower

Notes: Huge offset in context saw an outer tier fill and still large reversal for a good trap trade setup. Be careful here not to linger too long as the overall news is strong and sure to see short follow through after the reversal. We saw a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 12 min then a reversal.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.28.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/28/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.6%
Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 132’27
1st Peak@ 132’24 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 132’28 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

2nd peak @ 132’23 – 0833 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a dull reaction for a short move of only 3 ticks followed by a 4 tick reversal in 4 sec. Contributing to the dull reaction, the 200 SMA ,100 SMA, and S2 Mid Pivot were all within 1 tick of the origin. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 132’25 with no slippage, then you would have seen it hover between Breakeven and 2 ticks in the red for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit at BE or with a 1 tick loss on the dull reaction. After the 1st peak, it was able to fall 1 more tick for a minor 2nd peak on the :33 bar to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot about 15 min later.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 042014

5/29/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 300K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009843 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009854 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009846 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009852 – 0830:42 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009838 – 0832:26 (3 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009826 – 0902 (32 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009831 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009823 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009854 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.009862 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in strong with 21K less jobs lost than the forecast with a very disappointing prelim GDP that fell 1.0%. This caused a 11 long spike that crossed the 200 SMA and the R2 Pivot, then fell to eventually reverse about 16 ticks. This would have barely filled or just missed your inner short entry tier depending upon your placement (54 or lower would have filled). If filled, you would have seen it fall to give you 8 ticks immediately, then pullback and fall to allow up to 16 ticks to be captured on the :33 bar. The GDP #s drove the initial long spike, then the claims took over. It fell another 12 ticks in the next 30 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009640 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009621 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009635 – 0830:13 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009641 – 0838 (8 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009630 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009622 (just above the LOD / on S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009651 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009658 (just above the HOD / R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in matching with only 1k offset while the concurrently released Prelim GDP came in 0.3% better than the forecast to cause a short reaction of 19 ticks. This would have taken 4 sec to breach the inner and outer long entry tiers to give you an average entry of 0.009626. Since it crossed the PP Pivot and hit the LOD, it retreated quickly to hover around the 0.009632 area to allow an easy fast exit with about 10-14 total ticks. If you were patient, you could have secured up to 16 more ticks as it rose in the next 7 min to the 20 SMA and R1 Pivot. After the reversal, it traded sideways.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.25.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Dec 272014

11/25/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.3%
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 142’08
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 142’00 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 142’05 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 142’01 – 0834 (4 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 142’11 – 0842 (12 min)
10 ticks

Double Bottom @ 142’00 – 0906 (36 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 142’15 – 0948 (78 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 142’03 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 142’01 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 142’13 (just above the 200/100 SMAs) / 142’15 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.6%, causing a short spike of 8 ticks in 6 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and LOD then retreated 5 ticks in the next 12 sec. This would have filled both the inner and outer long entries for a 2 tier fill making your average position 142’02. As it reversed, it hovered at 142’04 for 25 sec allowing an easy quick exit for 2 ticks (4 ticks total on the average position). After that it pulled back to 142’01 3 min later, then reversed 10 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs in the next 8 min. Then it fell for a double bottom after 24 min before reversing 15 ticks in 42 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.27.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/27/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.1%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 146’21
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’16 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’22 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 146’14 – 0835 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 0842 (12 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 146’17 (in between the 50/100 SMAs) / 146’13 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 146’25 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 146’29 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, causing a short spike of 5 ticks in 15 sec that started on the OOD and fell to reach the 100 SMA before reversing. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare. As it reversed, it hovered at 146’21 +/- 1 tick for 5 sec allowing an easy quick exit for about 4 ticks. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 4 min to the 200 SMA before reversing 10 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 8 min.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 5.29.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Jun 062015

5/29/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: -0.8%
Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 155’03 (shift 1 tick lower to 155’02)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 154’25 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 155’07 – 0830:36 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 155’01 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 155’16 – 0905 (35 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 155’08 – 0914 (44 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 154’29 (just below the PP Pivot)/ 154’26 (just above the OOD)
Short entries – 155’06 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 155’10 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, causing a short spike of 9 ticks in 2 sec that started just below the 100/200 SMAs and fell to cross the PP Pivot and nearly reach the OOD reversing. This would have filled the inner and outer long entries making an average long position of 154’27.5. As it reversed, it climbed 14 ticks in 34 sec then hovered at 155’06 (the inner short tier) to allow 21 total ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min before reversing 15 ticks in 33 min. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.27.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/27/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.2%
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 156’11
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 155’31 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 156’04 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 155’28 – 0831:45 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Reversal to 156’12 – 0836 (6 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 155’16 – 0911 (41 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 156’19 – 1004 (94 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 156’07 (just below the 50 SMA)/ 156’03 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 156’16 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 156’19 (in between the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.5%, causing a large short spike of 12 ticks in 9 sec that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing. This would have filled the inner and outer long entries making an average long position of 156’05. As it reversed, it climbed only 5 ticks and hovered 9 for 9 sec to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks loss for a total loss of 2-4 ticks. After that it continued to fall for 8 ticks to the LOD before reversing 16 ticks in 4 min to the 100 SMA. Then it fell for a final peak of 13 more ticks in 35 min as it extended the LOD before reversing 35 ticks in 53 min.in 34 sec then hovered at 155’06 (the inner short tier) to allow 21 total ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min before reversing 15 ticks in 33 min. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 95.74
1st Peak@ 95.65 – 0232 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 96.05 – 0238 (8 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing an initial dull reaction for a short move of only 9 ticks in 2 min. The market had been trading sideways before the report with all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist below the market action, but the short spike hit the S1 Pivot. It was unable to drop to the 50 SMA, but if it had, it would have encountered strong support and bounced sharply upward. With JOBB, your order would not have filled in the first 15 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial drop, the market reversed for 40 ticks in 6 min to hit the PP Pivot, before retreating slowly. The bulls returned after the market was relieved that the GDP reading did not disappoint. Also notice the action after the pit open resembled the action after the report broke…a small short move followed by a bigger long rebound.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

Prelim GDP Comments Off

May 312012

5/31/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.57
1st Peak@ 88.47 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 88.67 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.07 – 0246 (16 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 88.45 – 0300 (30 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, but was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims which came in fairly negative. With a matching GDP reading, most of the attention was given to the unemployment claims. The market had been in a selling mood prior to the report, so all 3 major SMAs were above the action. This resulted in a small first peak of 10 ticks, a reversal, then a 2nd peak of 50 ticks that took about 10 min to pan out. This report was not recommended to trade with JOBB due to the combined release, but the 2nd peak would have been a good manual trade. When you see the :39 to :42 bars go sideways and fail to rise above the 13 SMA, that is a good entry for a short trade in the 88.58 area. I would exit on the 44 bar after 2 long red bars and the long tail developed for at least 30 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 38 ticks in 14 min to peak at the pit open.

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