Prelim GDP | JO Bracket Breakout

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2/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.8%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.92
1st Peak@ 107.13 – 0331 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 106.67 – 0336 (36 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive, however under current market conditions the reverse reaction tends to be true, as good data has been triggering the sale of US bonds. Quick pop up to 107.13 then seesawed between 107.00 and 107.10 for the rest of the minute before falling significantly on the 0332 candle due to crossing both the 100 and 200 SMAs. I would close out around 107.08 by setting a stop limit order there. The reversal doubled the initial spike by slicing through all SMAs, pulling back to the 50 SMA, then falling more to bottom out at 46 ticks off the peak on the 0336 candle. Then we saw a recovery back to the 200 SMA before reversing to the CL open. The activity after 0336 to about 0430 was due to the influence of the report (at least partially), but not predictable.

11/22/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.48
1st Peak@ 98.16 – 0331 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak@ 97.93 – 0347 (17 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 98.23 – 0350 (20 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Report released in the middle of a preexisting Downward FAN. This aided the magnitude of the drop, but also notice the pullback on the 0331 candle. Still given the FAN, I would wait it out for a deeper drop. It is hard to say where the influence of the report stops since the FAN would have likely continued on course without the report. The 2nd peak is obvious at 0347 when the FAN reverses, but I only assess the first rebound level to be due to the GDP report. I would close out after seeing the 0343 candle as that is a good indication the downward momentum is exhausted.

8/26/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.43
1st Peak@ 85.19 / Retrace to 85.51 – 0231 (1 min)
-24 ticks / 8 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative causing indecision. JOBB would have gotten you in short then retraced and hovered with about 10 ticks of heat before hitting the 15 tick stop loss. I would close out with 10 ticks loss in this case.

5/26/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.2%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 100.84
1st Peak@ 100.49 – 0232 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.19 – 0242 (12 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Solid 2 candle drop of 35 ticks followed by a 70 tick reversal up to the 100 SMA. During the reversal, the it paused, experiencing some resistance at the 50 SMA but eventually fought through it. I would close out around the PP line at 101.10 at 0246 after seeing 5 candles no longer go above the PP.

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