Nov 222011

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.22.11

11/22/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 98.48
1st Peak@ 98.16 – 0331 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak@ 97.93 – 0347 (17 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 98.23 – 0350 (20 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Report released in the middle of a preexisting Downward FAN. This aided the magnitude of the drop, but also notice the pullback on the 0331 candle. Still given the FAN, I would wait it out for a deeper drop. It is hard to say where the influence of the report stops since the FAN would have likely continued on course without the report. The 2nd peak is obvious at 0347 when the FAN reverses, but I only assess the first rebound level to be due to the GDP report. I would close out after seeing the 0343 candle as that is a good indication the downward momentum is exhausted.