5/29/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 300K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009843 (last price)
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Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009854 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))11 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009846 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
)))Pullback to 0.009852 – 0830:42 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009838 – 0832:26 (3 min)
)))-14 ticks
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Extended Reversal to 0.009826 – 0902 (32 min)
26 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009831 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009823 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009854 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.009862 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Notes: Report came in strong with 21K less jobs lost than the forecast with a very disappointing prelim GDP that fell 1.0%. This caused a 11 long spike that crossed the 200 SMA and the R2 Pivot, then fell to eventually reverse about 16 ticks. This would have barely filled or just missed your inner short entry tier depending upon your placement (54 or lower would have filled). If filled, you would have seen it fall to give you 8 ticks immediately, then pullback and fall to allow up to 16 ticks to be captured on the :33 bar. The GDP #s drove the initial long spike, then the claims took over. It fell another 12 ticks in the next 30 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot.