6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

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Apr 102016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -1.0%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 4.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008899
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008908 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008897 – 0833:58 (4 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @0.008917 – 0847 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008907 – 0859 (6 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:10-12/20-24
Long entries – 0.008888 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.008877 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008910 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008921 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a.
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting report caused a quick spike that reversed. Unfortunately the spike was a few ticks too small to breach the inner short tier. Cancel the order on the miss. After a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot, it rebounded for a 2nd peak to the OOD.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

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Mar 182016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 1.8%
Previous revision: +0.2% to -1.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual: 4.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -5.0%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008892
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008877 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Hovering around 0.008878

Pullback to 0.008874 – 0831:27 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008888 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.008881 – 0838 (8 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008896 – 0842 (12 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008880 (just below the LOD) / 0.008872 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008902 (just below the 200 SMA/OOD) / 0.008909 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.008880 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: early conservative exit at 0.008879 – 1 tick loss or move wait for the delayed reversal for 7 ticks at 0.008887.
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008899 – move lower

Notes: All aspects of the report were moderately bullish, so it fell decisively for 15 ticks then took 2 min before starting to reverse. Patience would be okay in this scenario as this report still likes to reverse, but the consistent bias of the results kept it near the S3 Mid pivot for a bit.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

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Mar 112014
 

6J 03-14 (1 Min)  2_27_2014

2/27/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.3% to -1.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -4.2%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009806 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009812 – 0831:59 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009791 – 0845 (15 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0857 (27 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009806 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009799 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009829 (just below the HOD) / 0.009837 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 1.2%, while the regular reading fell short of the forecast by 0.3% and weekly unemployment claims came in 15k worse than expected. With the mixed news, the bullish news won the influence battle to cause an 11 ticks short move that peaked not near any barrier. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009806, then seen it only retreat 6 ticks as it hovered tamely between the fill point and 6 ticks of profit. Look to exit with 4-5 ticks after 2 min when it appears to be unable to go higher. It is odd that the claims and regular reading did not cause a larger reversal, but we aware of what the market is giving you. After about 4 min of hovering, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 8 ticks, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.26.2014

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Apr 122014
 

6J 06-14 (1 Min)  3_26_2014

3/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.9%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -1.3%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009750 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009750 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Reversal to 0.009772 – 0831:05 (2 min)
22 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009776 – 0834 (4 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 0.009766 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009758 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009750 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009782 (just below the OOD/HOD) / 0.009789 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading nearly matching the forecast, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 1.1%. With the mixed news, this caused a large unsustainable short move of 20 ticks that nearly reached the S2 Pivot and returned to the origin. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009758, but the outer tier would have missed. Then you would have ssen it retreat quickly to give you an immediate 8 ticks of profit. If you were a little patient, you could have captured up to 14 ticks with ease just after the :31 bar expired. After it continued upward for 4 more ticks, it pulled back for 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot in about 15 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

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May 122014
 

6J 06-14 (1 Min)  4_24_2014

4/24/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 2.0%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 2.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009757 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009748 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009756 – 0834:00 (4 min)
)))8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009744 – 0851 (21 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 0907 (37 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009747 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009737 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009767 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009777 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in consistent with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 1.4%, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 0.5%. The claims were offsetting with 20K worse than expected. With the mixed news, this caused a small unsustainable short move of 9 ticks that just barely eclipsed the S2 Pivot and bounced. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the short spike you’re your inner long entry by 1 tick. Cancel the order after 20 sec. It reversed for 8 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 20 min. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 16 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.27.2014

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Jun 032014
 

6J 06-14 (1 Min)  5_27_2014

5/27/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 2.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 2.9%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009812 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009787 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009811 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))24 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009804 – 0837 (7 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009815 – 0917 (47 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009800 (on the S3 Pivot) / 0.009792 (just below the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009823 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009832 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading barely falling short of the forecast by 0.1%, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 1.3% and both had bullish revisions. With the mixed news, this caused a sizeable unsustainable short move of 25 ticks that eclipsed the S4 Pivot and extended the LOD before a full retreat 1 sec later. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the short spike fill both your inner and outer long entries with about 5 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 24 ticks in the next 6 sec and hovered on the S2 Pivot for the rest of the bar allowing an easy exit with 24 total ticks. After that it pulled back to the S3 Mid Pivot 6 min later, then reversed 11 ticks in the next 40 min, crossing all 3 Major SMAs, the OOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. Of note, the Pivots were spaced very close together as the previous day was a US Holiday with little price action or market volume.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

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Jul 082014
 


6J 09-14 (1 Min)  6_25_20146J 09-14 (Second)  6_25_2014

6/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009956 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))139 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009832 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))-124 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009844 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009833 – 0842 (12 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009797 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009825 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009837 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mostly negative with the core reading falling short of the forecast by 0.4%, and the regular reading falling short of the forecast by 0.9% with mixed revisions. However all of this was overshadowed by the final GDP reading that shocked the markets with a 1.1% miss on a disappointing forecast. Since the Final GDP is the second revision, it usually matches the forecast or deviates by 0.2% at most, so this was an earthquake. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the long spike fill both your inner and outer long entries, but the stop would have possibly been rejected as it was shifting after the 2nd tier fill. This is a case if left naked in a trade and upside down about 100 ticks, the best play is to wait for it to come back. Since it is a panic induced reaction, it is not sustainable and plenty of traders will look to take advantage of the correction. So it crashed back all but 15 ticks a mere 20 sec later, which would have actually allowed a breakeven exit. After that it calmed down and pulled back for 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then reversed for 11 ticks after 6 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.25.2014

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Aug 102014
 

6J 09-14 (1 Min)  7_25_2014

7/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009818 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009813 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009823 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))10 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009808 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009799 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009829 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.009837 (just above the R1 Pivot/HOD)

Notes: Report came in mildly stronger than the forecast across the board with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 0.2%, and the regular reading exceeding the forecast by 0.3% with modest upward revisions. This caused a dull 5 tick short move that took all of the :31 bar to fall. With the Trap Trade, this would have been well inside your inner tiers, so cancel the order after 20 sec. It reversed for 10 ticks in the next 2 min, then flattened and traded sideways for about 45 min as the news was forgotten.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.26.2014

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Sep 042014
 

6J 09-14 (1 Min)  8_26_2014

8/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.8%
Previous revision: +1.1% to 1.9%
Regular Forecast: 7.8%
Regular Actual: 22.6%
Previous Revision: +1.0% to 1.7%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009620 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009612 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009628 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009622 – 0841 (11 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009630 – 0849 (19 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009610 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009602 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009630 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009640 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very strange report came in widely bipolar as the Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.3% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by nearly 15% on a surge of plane orders. Both readings also saw healthy previous revisions upward of about 1.0%. This caused a relatively tame short move of only 8 ticks that crossed the OOD and reversed. This would have been 2 ticks short of the inner long entry and did not come near it again, so cancel the order. It reversed for 16 ticks in the next 2min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 6 ticks in the next 8 min to the 100 SMA before reversing to the R2 Mid Pivot 8 min later.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.25.2014

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Oct 132014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  9_25_2014

9/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -17.7%
Regular Actual: -18.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009161 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009152 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009164 – 0836 (6 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009169 – 0844 (14 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009149 (on the LOD) / 0.009142 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009171 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009180 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: For the second straight month we saw a very strange report came in widely bipolar as the Core reading matched the forecast while the broader reading fell short of a dismal forecast by 0.5% after a correction from the surge of plane orders last month. The concurrent unemployment claims report matched the forecast too. This caused a relatively tame short move of only 9 ticks that crossed the S2 Pivot and reversed in the next 5 bars for 12 ticks. This would have been 2-3 ticks short of the inner long entry and did not come near it again, but this is a case where it is safe to move the inner tier up to about 0.009153 or 54 for a fill as it is just below the S2 Pivot and unlikely to fall lower with the support encountered. It reversed slowly, but be patient and look to exit at the 200 SMA or S2 Mid Pivot. It continued to reverse for another 5 ticks in the next 8 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back to the S2 Mid Pivot and reversed to the S1 Pivot again.