6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.28.2014

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.28.2014
Nov 162014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  10_28_2014

10/28/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: -1.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -18.4%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009253 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009273 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009265 – 0831:05 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9287 – 0837 (7 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.009272 – 0848 (18 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009149 (on the LOD) / 0.009142 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009262 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.009272 (in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Solidly bearish report caused a stable and decisive long reaction. The Core reading and broader reading fell short by 0.7% and 1.7% with small downward previous revisions. It started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot for 20 ticks in 7 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately, then filled your outer short entry about 5 sec later. With an average position of 0.009267, you would have had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks just after the :32 bar opened. Look to exit there as a 2nd peak is likely forthcoming. Remember this is like the whipsaw case to the bracket trade, so exiting around breakeven or even a few ticks profit is a great outcome. After the reversal, it climbed another 14 ticks on a 2nd peak in 5 min to reach the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it reversed to the 20 SMA and S1 Pivot for 15 ticks in 11 min. After that it climbed for a double top, then reversed again as the market opened.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

 Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on 6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014
Dec 292014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  11_26_2014 6J 12-14 (Second)  11_26_2014

11/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.008489 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008502 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008490 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008500 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008494 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008505 – 0841 (11 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008493 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008480 (on the LOD) / 0.008470 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008499 (match the high @0740) / 0.008509 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report caused an initial long spike followed by a quick reversal. The Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.4% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.8% with small upward previous revisions. Unemployment claims also released with a 26K disappointment. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the high from 0740 for 13 ticks with no other barrier near then fell 12 ticks 5 sec later. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately with 3 ticks to spare, then fallen to hover near the origin allowing 9 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in the next 16 sec then reversed 6 ticks on the :33 bar to the 50/100 SMAs. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to reach the HOD in 8 min before reversing 12 ticks to the 200 SMA in 13 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.27.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.27.2015
Mar 022015
 

6J 03-15 (1 Min)  1_27_2015

1/27/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.8%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: -3.4%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.9%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008501 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008496 – 0831:18 (2 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008511 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008503 – 0831:39 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008527 – 0919 (49 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008492 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.008481 (just above the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008509 (just above the R3 Pivot) / 0.008521 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Bearish report caused an initial short move that was delayed about 1 min for only 5 ticks to the 50 SMA, then a reversal shortly after for 15 ticks that crossed the R3 Pivot and retreated 8 ticks. This would have provided only dull movement for the :31 bar, so cancel the order on the slow reaction. After the initial volatility, it reversed 24 ticks in 47 min to step higher and eclipse the R4 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

 Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on 6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015
Mar 202015
 

6J 03-15 (1 Min)  2_26_2015

2/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 313K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008415
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008423 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008400 – 0832:04 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008409 – 0837 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008388 – 0902 (32 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008425 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008433 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 25k offset. Durable Goods were offsetting as was CPI. This caused a delayed move that climbed 8 ticks at the end of the :31 bar to cross the 200 SMA and hit the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks in a little over a minute as it crossed the S1 Pivot. The move would have been too slow and small to breach the tier, so cancel the order. After that, it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing for 21 ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015
Apr 082015
 

6J 06-15 (1 Min)  3_25_2015

3/25/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -1.4%
Previous Revision: -0.8% to 2.0%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.008381 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008414 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))33 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008383 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008392 – 0830:37 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Continued Pullback to 0.009395 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008382 – 0845 (15 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008371 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008361 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008391 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008400 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Solidly bearish report caused an abnormal large whipsaw that greatly exceeded the threshold of the range of expectation. We saw a 33 tick long spike to the R2 Mid Pivot that collapsed as quickly as it started. This would have filled both tiers and stopped you out with a total loss of about 25 ticks. After the collapse, it pulled back 9 ticks in 30 sec, then another 3 ticks in the next 3 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 11 min to the 50 SMA. This report was already a risk 3 due to other antics, so this comes a little less surprising.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.24.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.24.2015
May 012015
 

6J 06-15 (1 Min)  4_24_2015 6J 06-15 (Second)  4_24_2015

4/24/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 4.0%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008377 (shift up 3 ticks to 0.008380)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008387 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008378 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008406 – 0940 (70 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 0.008390 – 1007 (97 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008370 (just below the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.008360 (just below the PP Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008391 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008400 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Conflicting report caused an typical whipsaw that fell 11 ticks in 4 sec to cross the 100/200 SMAs then reverse. Your initial anchor point would have setup at 0.008377, but should be shifted up about 3 ticks due to the drift of the market. This would have filled you inner long entry with 1 tick to spare then reversed after a few sec for a total of 18 ticks in 25 sec where it hovered for about 30 sec to allow an easy exit with about 16 ticks. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before reversing 28 ticks in 67 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 27 min to the R1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.26.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.26.2015
Jun 052015
 

6J 06-15 (1 Min)  5_26_2015

5/26/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.5% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to 4.7%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008148 (shift up 4 ticks to 0.008152)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008130 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008140 – 0833:34 (4 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008112 – 0901 (31 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.008126 – 0910 (40 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008140 (on the LOD) / 0.008131 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008163 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008174 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Unusual report that matched the forecast on both sides of the report. This caused a decisive short move of 22 ticks in 12 sec that would have filled both inner and outer long entries for an average long position of about 0.008136. Then you would have seen it only reverse for 4 ticks and hover for the first 2 min. There are 2 ways to play this situation. 1) you can move the stop to 1 tick below the 1st peak and wait for it to reverse a few more ticks until the falling 13/20 become resistance. This would have allowed up to 10 total ticks to be captured, or 2) you can exit at 0.8134 for a 3 tick loss on the hovering. The risk of a stop at 0.008129 is 13 ticks. We will grade this as a dull fill with the 3 tick loss. After the reversal, it stepped lower for a final peak of 18 more ticks in 27 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.23.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.23.2015
Jun 282015
 

6J 09-15 (1 Min)  6_23_2015

6/23/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: -0.7% to -0.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: -1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -1.0%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008082 (shift down 2 ticks to 0.008080)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008191 – 0832:28 (3 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008078 – 0836:52 (7 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008064 – 0857 (27 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008068 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 0.008058 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008090 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.008101 (in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The core reading matched with a moderate bearish revision while the regular reading fell short of the forecast with a moderate bearish revision. This caused a small long move of 11 ticks in about 2.5 min with a slow approach. Since the spike moved only 6 ticks in 20 sec, cancel the order. After the peak it reversed 13 ticks in 4 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then another 14 ticks in 20 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.27.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.27.2015
Sep 082015
 

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7_27_2015

7/27/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: -0.5% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.2%
Regular Actual: 3.4%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -2.2%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008121
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008118 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008125 – 0832:25 (3 min)
)))7 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008111 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.008100 (just above the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008132 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008143 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: The core reading mildly exceeded the forecast with a moderate bearish revision while the regular reading modestly exceeded the forecast with a modest bearish revision. This caused a small short move of only 3 ticks in 5 sec. Cancel the order on the dull move. After that it reversed a total of 7 ticks in 2 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.26.2015

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.26.2015
Sep 122015
 


6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8_26_20156J 09-15 (Second) 8_26_2015

8/26/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.6%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to 4.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008356
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008345 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008354 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008341 – 0830:37 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008357 – 0850 (20 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008346 (just below the LOD) / 0.008332 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (just above the 100 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The core reading mildly exceeded the forecast with a modest bearish revision while the regular reading exceeded the forecast with a moderate bullish revision. With most of the news bullish, this caused a short move of 11 ticks in 2 sec that quickly retreated. This would have filled your inner long tier at 0.008346 then allowed about 4-6 ticks to be captured after a quick reversal and brief hovering. If you did not act quickly in this case, you would have seen the profit ebb away after 30 sec then allow an exit near breakeven in the next 4 min. After that it reversed 16 ticks in the next 19 min to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot.