10/28/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: -1.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -18.4%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009253 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009273 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))20 ticks
)))Reversal to 0.009265 – 0831:05 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
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2nd Peak @ 0.9287 – 0837 (7 min)
34 ticks
Reversal to 0.009272 – 0848 (18 min)
15 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009149 (on the LOD) / 0.009142 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009262 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.009272 (in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)
Notes: Solidly bearish report caused a stable and decisive long reaction. The Core reading and broader reading fell short by 0.7% and 1.7% with small downward previous revisions. It started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot for 20 ticks in 7 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately, then filled your outer short entry about 5 sec later. With an average position of 0.009267, you would have had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks just after the :32 bar opened. Look to exit there as a 2nd peak is likely forthcoming. Remember this is like the whipsaw case to the bracket trade, so exiting around breakeven or even a few ticks profit is a great outcome. After the reversal, it climbed another 14 ticks on a 2nd peak in 5 min to reach the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it reversed to the 20 SMA and S1 Pivot for 15 ticks in 11 min. After that it climbed for a double top, then reversed again as the market opened.