US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 2.28.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

2/28/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -165B
Actual: -171B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.458
1st Peak @ 3.395 – 1031 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 3.460 – 1031 (1 min)
65 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.492 (9 min)
97 ticks

Notes: Moderately greater loss than was forecast saw a short spike of 63 ticks that was unsustainable, followed by a quick reversal of 35 ticks. Then it hovered at the 3.430 area and continued long to 3.460 before the bar expired. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.445, then had an opportunity to exit at about breakeven after the pullback. After the indecisive :31 bar, the reversal continued long for another 32 ticks in the next 8 min. Then it backed off and chopped sideways.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.21.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

2/21/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -119B
Actual: -127B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.251
Premature spike @ 3.234 – 1030 (0 min)
-17 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.337 – 1031 (1 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.271 – 1040 (10 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Moderately greater loss than was forecast saw a premature short spike of 17 ticks, then caused a 1st peak of 86 ticks that crossed all 3 of the major SMAs that were previously serving as support near the origin. It crossed the R1 Pivot halfway up the spike, then peaked 2 ticks above the R2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed strongly and quickly for 66 ticks in 10 min.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

2/7/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -135B
Actual: -118B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.414
1st Peak @ 3.341 – 1031 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 3.372 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.318 – 1136 (66 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 3.345 – 1204 (94 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 73 ticks that was a few seconds premature, crossed no SMAs and the S1 / S2 Pivots. With JOBB, you would not have filled since the spike moved early on the :30 bar before the bracket was on the chart. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 31 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks an hour later. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 27 ticks in about 30 min to touch the 100 SMA.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

2/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -166B
Actual: -157B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.274
1st Peak @ 3.187 – 1033 (3 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.135 – 1322 (172 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 3.167 – 1401 (211 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Moderately smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 87 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs at the origin, and the S1 Pivot halfway down the spike. It eventually bottomed on the 1st peak 4 ticks below the S2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it continued to step lower, never wanting to reverse much. It achieved a final peak almost 3 hrs after the report of 139 ticks, and did not cross the 50 SMA until 1330. The final reversal garnered only 32 ticks in about 40 min to eclipse the 200 SMA. Overall a very bearish reaction over a long period of time.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

1/31/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -202B
Actual: -194B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.329
1st Peak @ 3.253 – 1031 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 3.269 – 1034 (4 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.243 – 1037 (7 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.383 – 1159 (89 min)
140 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 76 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs on top of each other and the PP / S1 Pivots. With JOBB, you would not have filled since the spike moved early on the :30 bar before the bracket was on the chart. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 16 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of only 10 more ticks in 7 min. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 35 ticks in 18 min, then 105 more ticks in the next hour to eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

1/24/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -167B
Actual: -172B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.603
1st Peak @ 3.524 – 1031 (1 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 3.567 – 1033 (3 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.519 – 1041 (11 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 3.576 – 1119 (49 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a contrary short spike of 79 ticks that crossed all 3 SMAs on top of each other and the PP / S1 Pivots. With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.570. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with at least 30 ticks as it hovered around the S1 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for 43 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of only 5 more ticks in 11 min. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 42 ticks in 9 min, then 15 more ticks in the next 30 min to eclipse the 100 SMA.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.12.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 062013

4/12/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.95
1st Peak @ 91.17 – 1233 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1243 (13 min)
31 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the “Resilience and Rebuilding for Low-Income Communities” Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Community Affairs Officers, in Washington DC. He did not discuss QE3, but spoke about low income housing and the housing market as a whole. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 91.00 with no slippage on the :02 bar. This is a case where the first bar would not have filled as it only moved 4 ticks on either side of the anchor point. Be patient and wait for the :02 bar. With the 50 and 200 SMAs looming above, watch the initial interaction and move the stop loss up to 1-2 ticks lower than the 200 SMA. When the bars after the :03 could not achieve a higher level and no bar was able to establish space above the 200 SMA, look to exit around 91.08 before it hits your stop loss. Then you would secure 3-8 ticks. The reversal reclaimed 31 ticks, eclipsing the 100 SMA in 10 min. Even though this was Friday afternoon news, it still was a safe opportunity and relatively tame.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.8.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

4/8/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1915 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.42 – 1916 (1 min)
4 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2013 Financial Markets Conference about the stress test results of the banks. Due to the time of day, narrowly into the thinly traded Asian market session, we saw a dull reaction with low volume. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled. In this case, after about 2 min, cancel the order. Even if you had left it on the chart, the long move at 1954 would have given you a small profit. We will not recommend FED Speeches after the pit close and out of the US trading session again.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.4.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

4/4/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.22
1st Peak @ 93.41 – 1031 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 92.75 – 1041 (11 min)
66 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the financial and economic education at the Redefining Investment Strategy Education Conference in Dayton, via satellite. He did not discuss QE3, so there was not much to excite the market on this event. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.29 with 2 ticks of slippage. The market was already engaged in a short move, so it went against the grain and crossed the 100 SMA and found resistance at the 20 SMA. Since the market was in a downtrend and it was unable to close above the 20 SMA, move the stop up to the 100 SMA, then look to exit around 93.39. You would have taken 10 ticks or been stopped with 1 tick profit. The reversal continued with the downtrend nearly down to the LOD for 66 ticks. Then the market corrected back to the intersection of the 50 and 100 SMAs, before falling again.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.25.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

3/25/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1315 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 94.03
1st Peak @ 94.14 – 1316 (1 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.90 – 1424 (69 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 94.50 – 1530 (135 min)
40 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the monetary policy and global economy, strongly defending the dovish policies of easing and historically low interest rates. This caused a moderate weakening of the dollar and a corresponding rally in oil. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 94.10 with 2 ticks of slippage. It initially hit the R1 Pivot at 94.13, where the 1st peak terminated, then it kept climbing for the next hour or so for 87 total ticks, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs except for 1 dip near the end of the move to the 50 SMA. I chose to exit at the 100 SMA as I had to leave, but there were many better later exit points if you were patient, monitored the dollar, the SMAs, and the MACD. You could have exited around the :46 bar when it hit the 200 SMA or on the dip through the 20 SMA and MACD crossing around 1410. The market reversed for 40 ticks after the pit close culminating at 1530.

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