10/31/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual: 38B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.584 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.560 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.591 – 1031 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.611 – 1042 (12 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an indecisive reaction on the :31 bar after the movement on the :30 bar was easily contained within the bracket. The spike fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks, then reversed for 31 ticks immediately before chopping for the rest of the bar and settling near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.564 with about 10 ticks of slippage, then seen it stop you out immediately for a 20 tick loss with no slippage. After the :31 bar, it backed off before continuing to reverse for another 20 ticks to the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot 11 min later.

11/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 21B
Actual: 20B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.501 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.545 – 1031 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.507 – 1032 (2 min)
38 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.560 – 1035 (5 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.508 – 1111 (41 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 44 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the S1 Mid Pivot at the top before retreating to leave 31 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.526 with about 15 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 15 ticks as it hovered near the top of the bar for about 5 sec before retreating. After the :31 bar, it continued to reverse for a few more ticks, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in 3 min as it eclipsed the OOD. Then it reversed for 52 ticks in the next 35 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

12/5/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -141B
Actual: -162B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.006 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.078 – 1031 (1 min)
72 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.089 – 1034 (4 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 4.060 – 1040 (10 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 72 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the R3 Mid Pivot at the top and greatly extended the HOD, closing near the top of the bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.037 with about 21 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately at the R3 Mid Pivot and back to off to chop between 4.055 and 4.021 (R2 Mid Pivot) for 20 sec before it ascended to the end of the bar. The stop at -20 ticks would have been positioned well to absorb the heat with 4 ticks to spare just below the R2 Mid Pivot. A pre-established profit target of 20 ticks would have filled easily, or wait until after 20 sec into the bar for later rally due to the large draw. After the :31 bar, it continued to edge higher for another 11 ticks in the next 3 min. Then it only reversed 29 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 13 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot. It remained above the R3 Mid Pivot until about 1130 before it finally was able to go lower.

1/9/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -147B
Actual: -157B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.156 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.192 – 1031 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 4.142 – 1033 (3 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 4.190 – 1045 (15 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 4.129 – 1108 (38 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 36 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD and nearly reached the HOD for 36 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.180 with about 14 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 14 ticks of heat and 10 ticks of profit for the first 21 sec of the bar. A target of anything less than 12 ticks would have filled, or look to exit late in the bar just above the S1 Mid Pivot for about 5 ticks. It reversed strongly on the next 2 bars for 50 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and matching a low hit twice in the previous hour. Then it pulled back for 48 ticks in a near double top in the next 12 min. After that the bears won the final fight, dragging it down 61 ticks in 23 min to nearly reach the LOD.

1/23/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -112B
Actual: -107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.812 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.871 – 1031 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 4.827 – 1032 (2 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.886 – 1041 (11 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 4.821 – 1045 (15 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 4.877 – 1100 (30 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 4.756 – 1135 (65 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Slightly lesser draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 59 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot on the upward path, then peaked on the 200 SMA, before retreating late in the bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.829 with about 7 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 4.860, just above the R2 Mid Pivot with 30+ ticks. This would have easily filled up to 30 sec into the bar. It backed off about 38 ticks as the bar expired, then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 15 more ticks on the :41 bar, briefly penetrating the 200 SMA, but quickly retreating. Then it reversed 65 ticks in 4 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. Then it chopped sideways and pulled back to eclipse the 200 SMA one more time at the top of the hour. After that, it reversed strongly in the next 35 min for 121 ticks, then continued oscillating with a lower center of gravity.