US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 1.30.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

1/30/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -225B
Actual: -230B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 5.146 (1029)
1st Peak @ 5.170 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 5.120 – 1031 (1 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.216 – 1035 (5 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 5.113 – 1040 (10 min)
103 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 24 tick long spike on the :31 bar where the movement on the :30 bar would have filled your long entry. The spike initially crossed the 13 SMA prior to the release, then the 20 SMA and almost the 50 SMA after the release. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 5.156 with no slippage on the :30 bar at 5.156. It would have backed off then hovered between 8 ticks in the red and 4 ticks in the profit. The safe play is to close out close to breakeven if you are filled with minimal momentum on the :30 bar. After the release, it continued long for another 10 ticks, then reversed on the back end of the :31 bar for 50 ticks to the LOD, before closing out the bar at the top again. Then it achieved a 2nd peak of 46 more ticks, eclipsing the 200 SMA, before reversing 103 ticks back to the LOD again. It continued to chop sideways above the S1 Mid Pivot before a dramatic 80 ticks drop at 1100, then a 240 tick reversal in the next 35 min.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -270B
Actual: -262B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 5.136 (1029)
Premature spike @ 5.105 (1029:22)
31 ticks

Reversal to 5.140 (1029:37)
35 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.000 – 1030:15 (1 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 5.087 – 1030:43 (1 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.971 – 1033 (3 min)
169 ticks

Reversal to 5.120 – 1037 (7 min)
149 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short move with a premature 31 tick short spike on the :30 bar. Ever since the extreme winter conditions have taken hold we have seen much larger moves on the NG and trading over 5.000 for the first time in a few years. The premature spike fell to eclipse the 50 SMA and 20/13 SMAs then chopped sideways before pulling back to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 5.120 with 6 ticks of slippage on the :30 bar. Since the fill was premature look for a safe and quick exit. Moving the profit target up to the 5.110 area for 10 ticks would have been smart as it chopped between 5.105 and 5.120 for 14 sec before it pulled back above the 50 SMA. Then when the news broke, it fell for 140 ticks to 5.000 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 87 ticks at :43 sec, before falling for a 2nd peak of another 29 ticks to 4.971 on the :33 bar. After that it reversed for 149 ticks in the next 4 min to the 50 SMA. In the aftermath, it continued large swings, but the peaks and valleys along with the timing was fairly random, making it difficult to trade.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/13/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -234B
Actual: -237B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.936 (1029)
Premature spike @ 4.922 (1029:49)
14 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.019 – 1030:15 (1 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 4.985 – 1030:43 (1 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.064 – 1033 (3 min)
128 ticks

Reversal to 4.984 – 1037 (7 min)
80 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long move with a premature 14 tick short spike on the :30 bar. The premature spike was small, but fell to hit the R1 Mid Pivot, then pulled back up. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.926 with no slippage on the :30 bar, then seen it pull back. Since the fill was premature look for a safe and quick exit with about 4-5 ticks loss as the bar was expiring. Exiting early in this case would have avoided a probable 30-50 tick loss. Then when the news broke, it rallied for 83 ticks to 5.019 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the HOD. Then it reversed for 34 ticks at :43 sec, before rallying for a 2nd peak of another 45 ticks to 5.064 on the :33 bar. After that it reversed for 80 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA. In the aftermath, it continued to climb, mostly using the 13/20 SMAs as support.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -255B
Actual: -250B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 6.081 (1029)
Premature spike @ 6.105 (1029:40)
24 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.975 – 1030:15 (1 min)
106 ticks

Reversal to 6.050 – 1030:52 (1 min)
75 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.882 – 1036 (6 min)
199 ticks

Reversal to 6.053 – 1059 (29 min)
171 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short move with a premature 24 tick long spike on the :30 bar. The premature spike was moderate in size, but rose in a tame and safe manner. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 6.091 with no slippage on the :30 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around 6.103 allowing for an easy exit with 12 ticks. Exiting early in this case would have avoided a probable 30-50 tick loss. Then when the news broke, it fell for 106 ticks to 5.975 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 75 ticks at :52 sec, before falling for a 2nd peak of another 93 ticks to 5.882 on the :36 bar. After that it reversed for 171 ticks in the next 23 min to the 100/200 SMAs. In the aftermath, it continued to climb, eventually reaching the R1 Mid Pivot over an hour after the report.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/27/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -110B
Actual: -95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.484 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.441 – 1031 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 4.497 – 1031 (1 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.563 – 1038 (8 min)
122 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a moderate short move while the action of the :30 bar would have been easily contained within the bracket. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.460 with 14 ticks slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it hit the LOD and promptly retreat to the fill point and hover for 5 sec before retreating further long. When it hovers in that manner with a big pullback, the best course of action is to exit quickly near breakeven. The :31 bar reversed all the way up to the 200 SMA then the extended reversal climbed all the way up to 4.563 for 122 ticks in 8 min. After that it chopped between the 13 SMA and PP Pivot before falling to the area of support seen before the news broke.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -134B
Actual: -152B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.538 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.665 – 1033 (3 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 4.620 – 1041 (11 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.695 – 1056 (26 min)
157 ticks

Reversal to 4.629 – 1115 (45 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long move with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin, the HOD, and the R1 Mid Pivot to peak on the :33 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.575 with 27 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around the R1 Mid Pivot at 4.641 allowing for an easy exit with 60+ ticks. With the larger offset, this is also a safer report to be patient for a higher exit. After reaching 4.665 on the :33 bar, it reversed for 45 ticks in 10 min back to the 13 SMA. After 7 min of chopping above the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 30 more ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 66 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. After that it oscillated sideways near the R1 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/13/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -199B
Actual: -195B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.420 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.370 – 1031 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 4.416 – 1031 (1 min)
46 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.443 – 1052 (22 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a moderate unsustainable short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, then retreated strongly after 7 sec to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.392 with 18 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it retreat to stop you out after 8 sec unless you closed out manually before that. After that it chopped around the S1 Pivot before reversing for another 27 ticks in about 20 min. Then it oscillated around the 200 SMA for the short term.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.8
Actual: 51.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (Early release-no fill)
Started @ 0.009754 (0957)
1st Peak @ 0.009765 – 0958 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 1001 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009769 – 1004 (7 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 1007 (10 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.2 points. The report was leaked by one news source 3 min early, as it moved on the :58 bar. This caused a tame long spike of 11 ticks on 2 bars as it started just below the 50 SMA, then climbed to cross the 200 SMA and hit the S1 Pivot. Cancel JOBB when you see the news has released early as announced on Talking Forex. After the 1st peak, it fell to test the 200 SMA for 6 ticks, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks above the S1 Pivot. Then it fell 10 ticks to hit the 200 SMA again. After that, it traded sideways for about 15 min before settling into another rally, unlikely due to the ISM report.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

Factory Orders Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/6/2014 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -2.0%
DULL REACTION (No FILL)
Started @ 0.009701
1st Bar span 0.009700 – 0.009702 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 1 ticks

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast with a weak reading coupled with a sizeable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that spanned only +/- 1 ticks from the origin. It did have a delayed reaction on the :02 – :05 bars for about 9 ticks, but be safe and cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.33M
Actual: 1.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.18M
Actual: -1.60M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.22M
Actual: 1.41M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.75
1st Peak @ 102.55 – 1031 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 102.81 – 1032 (2 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.92 – 1049 (19 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 102.31 – 1101 (31 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching modest gain in inventories, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a smaller modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news and minimal offset on the crude and gas caused a tame short reaction of only 20 ticks on the :31 bar that was unsustained. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 102.66 with no slippage, then seen it give you a quick opportunity to capture about 5-8 ticks, before retreating beyond the origin. After the reversal, it fell again for a larger 2nd peak of 63 more ticks in the next 19 min, crossing the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 39 ticks back to the S2 Pivot in the next 12 min. After that it traded sideways underneath the S2 Pivot.

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