Factory Orders | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

Factory Orders Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/6/2014 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -2.0%
DULL REACTION (No FILL)
Started @ 0.009701
1st Bar span 0.009700 – 0.009702 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 1 ticks

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast with a weak reading coupled with a sizeable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that spanned only +/- 1 ticks from the origin. It did have a delayed reaction on the :02 – :05 bars for about 9 ticks, but be safe and cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.4.2014

Factory Orders Comments Off

Feb 242014

2/4/2014 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -1.9%
Actual: -1.5%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 1.5%
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 0.009862
1st Bar span 0.009859 – 0.009864 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with a weak reading offset by a sizeable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that spanned only +/- 3 ticks from the origin as it was trapped by the 100/50 SMAs on top and the S1 Mid Pivot underneath. With JOBB, you may have filled short at 0.009859 with no slippage. If filled, look to exit with a 1-2 tick loss as it tamely hovered.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.5.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

12/5/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -0.9%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.8%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009799
1st Peak @ 0.009794 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009806 – 1003 (3 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a weak reading and a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that fell 5 ticks, crashing into the 100/200 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009796 with no slippage. Due to the strong support barrier and the matching results, look to exit within 1 tick of break even. As long as you exited before the :03 bar reversed for 12 ticks, you would have been fine. After the reversal, it fell again, but not likely due to the news with a matching report.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

8/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: +0.9% to 3.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010080
1st Peak @ 0.010095 – 1002 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.010083 – 1012 (12 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010109 – 1033 (33 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.010098 – 1034 (34 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast offset with a sizable upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long reaction that achieved 15 ticks on 2 bars, using the 13/20 SMAs as a launching point, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010085 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at 0.010090 for about 5 ticks when it hovered. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 10 min to the PP Pivot, then it rebounded upward aided by the negative NFP results earlier and achieved a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 20 min. After a quick 11 tick reversal, it continued the rally, but the impact of this report has likely expired.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0%
Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.3%
DULL REACTION…No Fill
Started @ 136’02
1st Peak @ 136’04 – 1001 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 135’31 – 1004 (4 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a strong reading and an upward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that eventually moved 2 ticks, but would have been cause to cancel the order without a fill. As long as you cancelled the order before 35 sec elapsed, you would have been fine. After the muted long move, it fell and reversed only 5 ticks to the 200 SMA on the :04 bar.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

4/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: +1.0% to -1.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.39
1st Peak @ 96.49 – 1002 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 96.34 – 1014 (14 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.66 – 1049 (49 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 96.32 – 1106 (66 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a strong reading and an upward revision to the previous report. This caused a 10 tick spike on the :02 bar to narrowly avoid the dull classification. Due to the selloff of about 130 ticks in the past 2 hrs and the drastic extension of the LOD, the market was oversold and unwilling to go lower than the new low of 95.91. A correction was underway in the 30 min prior to report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 96.45 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-4 ticks on the :01 or :02 bars. Knowing the market conditions and the bullish report, I decided to stay in for a longer term 2nd peak. I initially kept my stop loss at the S1 Pivot at 15 ticks, but later moved it up to 96.33 when that level held up after 2 tests. I had a 10 tick target that filled on the :27 bar. The 2nd peak claimed 27 ticks to eclipse the 200 SMA, then the final reversal recaptured 34 ticks. This is an example of how you can use the larger market picture to your advantage.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

3/6/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -2.2%
Actual: -2.0%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to 1.3%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 90.17
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 90.31 – 1007 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Mixed report disappointed with a dismal forecast and narrowly better result, but a large downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull bearish reaction that could only muster 8 ticks. Due to the selloff of about 80 ticks in the past 2 hrs and the extension of the LOD, the market was oversold and unwilling to go lower than 90.08 finding firm support at that level. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 90.13 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-3 ticks on the :01 or :02 bars. After several unsuccessful attempts to penetrate the 90.08 level, it reversed to 90.31 for 22 ticks in about 4 min to cross the S1 Pivot and touch the 50 SMA.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2.4.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

2/4/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.3%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 96.42
1st Peak @ 96.39 – 1001 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 96.49 – 1002 (2 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report disappointed, but was still stronger than the long term average. This caused a dull reaction with no impetus to go either way. If you followed the JOBB instructions, you should have cancelled the order after it did not fill in 15 sec. The :01 bar only fell 3 ticks, then the :02 bar rose 10 ticks. The report was also caught in the middle of a bullish correction and was unable to buck the larger trend much.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.02.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Nov 022012

11/2/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 4.7%
Actual: 4.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -5.1%
SPIKE / WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.10
1st Peak @ 86.00 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.53 – 0425 (25 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 85.81 – 0432 (32 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report which was positive could not overcome the overall bearish sentiment prevailing from the Non-Farm Employment report from 90 min earlier. This caused the market to short 10 ticks, then trade sideways before heading downward into a much larger 2nd peak of 57 ticks in the following 25 min to hit the S2 Pivot. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of 4.7% was very abnormal and follows the previous month of -5.2%. The large 2nd peak was probably due to the Non Farm longterm effect, but coincided with this report. The reversal long was a correction back to the 50 SMA news after bouncing up from the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 86.03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks, or if you were patient and waited on the :06 bar, you would have had up to 20 ticks.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -6.0%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 88.98
Peak @ 88.87 – 0402 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 89.43 – 0419 (19 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Odd but very negative report overall despite a reading better than the forecast. This caused the market to short 11 ticks crossing the PP Pivot, 100 and 50 SMAs, then rebound into a much larger reversal in the following 17 min. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of -6.0% was very abnormal. Even with a better result, the big picture is still very dismal. The large reversal long was due to the dollar dropping significantly on the news. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 88.91, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks if you waited on the :02 bar. The reversal was aided by the strong support of all the SMAs and the PP near or below the origin.

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