US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 4.8.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/8/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.43M
Actual: 10.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.04M
Actual: 0.82M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.83M
Actual: -0.25M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 52.74
1st Peak @ 52.29 – 1030:46 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 52.64 – 1034 (4 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 51.38 – 1044 (14 min)
136 ticks

Reversal to 51.94 – 1059 (29 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Epic gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a moderate short spike that started on the 200 SMA and fell for a total of 45 ticks in 46 sec as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 52.60 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it chop twice between the low point and S1 Mid Pivot, so set your profit target at about 52.36 and wait for it to fill. It would have filled at 25 sec, then trickled a few more ticks lower before reversing 35 ticks in 3 min to cross the S1 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA. Then it (predictably) fell another 91 ticks in 10 min on a 2nd peak due to the historically high oil gain. After that it reversed 38 ticks in 15 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 4.15.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/15/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.06M
Actual: 1.29M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.20M
Actual: -2.07M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.89M
Actual: 2.02M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 53.72
1st Peak @ 54.85 – 1031:16 (2 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 54.55 – 1033 (3 min)
30 ticks

Final Peak @ 55.87 – 1140 (70 min)
215 ticks

Reversal to 55.44 – 1155 (85 min)
43 ticks

Notes: First time since early January that the crude figures came in short of the forecast. Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a choppy setup just before the launch to result in the JOBB pending orders cancelled. Then it climbed 113 ticks in 76 sec, crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R2 Pivot near the pinnacle as it extended the HOD. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 1 min before stepping higher for a final peak of 102 more ticks in a little over an hour to the R3 Pivot. After that it reversed 43 ticks in 15 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA. Even with the JOBB orders rejected, recognize the bullish opportunity and jump in long manually late on the first peak, and/or after the initial reversal for the 2nd peak.

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 4.22.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/22/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.89M
Actual: 5.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.70M
Actual: -2.14M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.18M
Actual: 0.40M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 56.08
1st Peak @ 56.92 – 1030:59 (1 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 56.64 – 1032 (2 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 57.19 – 1033 (3 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 56.60 – 1036 (6 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. This caused an initial long spike of 22 ticks 2 sec premature then reversed just after the new bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 56.20 with 2 ticks of slippage then stopped a few sec later on the reversal with a 17 tick loss (2 ticks of slippage). After that it climbed safely for a 1st peak of 84 ticks to the PP Pivot that peaked as the :31 bar expired. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 1 min before climbing another 27 ticks in 1 min. After that it reversed 59 ticks in 3 min to reach the 13 SMA. Then it continued to chop sideways between 56.64 and the PP Pivot for about an hour.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/9/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.623
1st Peak @ 2.535 – 1030:29 (1 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 2.572 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 2.540 – 1046 (16 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 2.570 – 1100 (30 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 2.542 – 1134 (64 min)
26 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short move that initially fell to reach the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. Then it trickled lower to cross the S3 Mid Pivot in the next 28 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.591 with about 22 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to fall until it hovered around 2.556 to allow about 35 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 37 ticks in to the next bar to nearly reach the S2 Pivot before pulling back 32 ticks in 14 min to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 14 min before pulling back 26 ticks in 34 min.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/16/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 52B
Actual: 63B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.606
1st Peak @ 2.545 – 1030:00 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 2.564 – 1034 (4 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 2.547 – 1039 (9 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 2.593 – 1103 (33 min)
46 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.690 – 1239 (129 min)
143 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short move that fell to reach the S1 Mid Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.555 with abnormally high 41 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it hover just below the fill point for about 15 sec to allow up to 5 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 3 min before pulling back 17 ticks in 5 min. After that it reversed 46 ticks in 33 min to the 200 SMA, and another 97 ticks in the next 100 min after crossing the R2 Mid Pivot.

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/23/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 83B
Actual: 90B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.551
1st Peak @ 2.520 – 1030:00 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 2.570 – 1042 (12 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 2.532 – 1110 (40 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.549 – 1121 (51 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 2.525 – 1208 (98 min)
24 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell to cross the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.530 with 11 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it chop initially then settle to hover near the low on the S2 Pivot. Look to exit there with about 8 ticks. After that it reversed 50 ticks in 11 min after crossing the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 38 ticks in 28 min before reversing 17 ticks in 11 min. Then it pulled back 24 ticks in 47 min.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 9.26.2013

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

9/26/2013 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’24
1st Peak@ 131’18 – 0830:09 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 131’23 – 0830:50 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final peak @ 131’15 – 0850 (20 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 131’24 – 0905 (35 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a short spike of 6 ticks in 9 sec that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 131’21 with 1 tick of slippage. Then look to exit near the S1 Pivot with 1-2 ticks where it hovered for 17 sec. After that it reversed quickly for 5 ticks at the end of the :31 bar. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 3 more ticks in 19 min that extended the LOD. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot / 100 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

3/27/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’23
1st Peak@ 133’18 – 0830:07 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’24 – 0836 (6 min)
6 ticks

Continued Reversal to 133’29 – 0848 (18 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 133’22 – 0904 (34 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, causing a small short spike of 5 ticks in 7 sec that started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 133’21 with no slippage. Then look to exit just below the R1 Mid Pivot with 2 ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 5 min to the 200 SMA then another 5 ticks in 12 more min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 7 ticks in 16 min to the 200/100 SMAs.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

6/25/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: -2.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 136’10
1st Peak@ 136’21 – 0830:03 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 136’18 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 136’29 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 136’19 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.1%, causing a large long spike of 11 ticks in 3 sec that started on the 13/20 SMAs and climbed to cross the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 136’14 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then look to exit on the R2 Pivot where it hovered with 5 ticks. After that it reversed only 3 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks to the R2 Pivot in 12 min.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.26.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

9/26/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 4.6%
Actual: 4.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION -NO FILL
Started @ 137’29
1st Peak@ 137’31 – 0830:12 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 137’28 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 138’01 – 0834 (4 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’05 – 0900 (30 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 137’25 – 0925 (55 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing a dull reaction of only 1 tick until 12 sec into the reaction when it popped up for 1 more tick. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and just above the OOD and did not move much. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, you should have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no fill and the matching forecast. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at 137’31 with no slippage, then had the opportunity to exit at breakeven or -1 tick. After the small bump it reversed 3 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks. Then it dramatically fell 28 ticks in 26 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 20 ticks in 25 min to the PP Pivot / 100 SMA.

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