11/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.07/2.6
Actual: 2.30/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’19 (1301)
1st Peak @ 152’23 – 1301:59 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 152’14 – 1306 (5 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 152’28 – 1325 (24 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 152’20 – 1353 (52 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 152’21 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 152’23 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’27 (above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower after the initial spike

Notes: It used the 100 SMA as support.

9/10/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.88/2.3
Actual: 2.98/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 153’31 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 154’07 – 1302:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 154’01 – 1302:59 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 154’13 – 1307 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 153’18 – 1402 (61 min)
27 ticks

Expected Fill: 154’02 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 154’06 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’10 (below the OOD) – move lower after the initial spike

Notes: Recoil on the initial spike due to crossing the PP Pivot. The 5 tick stop would have absorbed the drop.

11/12/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.91/2.5
Actual: 3.07/2.4
INDECISIVE
Started @ 152’27 (1301)
1st Peak @ 152’16 – 1301:33 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 153’06 – 1302:02 (1 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 152’29 – 1303 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 153’05 – 1310 (9 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 152’21 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: Stopped @ 152’26 – 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’18 (above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Rare whipsaw on a usually reliable safe report. The swings afterward are expected and tradeable after a whipsaw.

9/24/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.93/2.5
Actual: 1.81/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 157’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 157’10 – 1303:03 (2 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 157’04 – 1313 (12 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 157’14 – 1327 (26 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 157’02 – 1353 (52 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’08 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 157’10 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’12 (4 ticks) – move lower to 157’10

Notes: None.

11/25/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.89/2.5
Actual: 2.01/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 155’04 (1131)
1st Peak @ 155’13 – 1131:37 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 155’06 – 1132:05 (1 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 155’20 – 1212 (41 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 155’12 – 1239 (68 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’06 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’10 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’10 (4 ticks)

Notes: Early release due to Thanksgiving holiday routine.