US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_14_2015

10/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -0.3%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 158’08
1st Peak @ 158’24 – 0830:21 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 158’19 – 0831:23 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 158’31 – 0837 (7 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 158’22 – 0842 (12 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 159’00 – 0849 (19 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 158’07 – 0947 (77 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 158’13 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 158’23 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 158’21 (above the HOD and R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Reversal after the 2nd peak fell to the 13 SMA, then climbed for a final peak allowing a perfect setup to trade the final peak.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 11.13.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 11_13_2015

11/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’31
1st Peak @ 153’13 – 0830:39 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 153’07 – 0831:15 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 153’16 – 0833 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 152’29 – 0910 (40 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 153’03 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 153’12 – 9 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 153’12 (above the HOD and R1 Pivot)

Notes: It initially struggled a bit to cross the 100/200 SMAs, but after 30 sec it breached the HOD / R1 Pivot.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.11.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_11_2015

12/11/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’30
1st Peak @ 155’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 155’27 – 0830:07 (1 min)
6 ticks

Hovering between 155’25 and 155’27 to 0831:17 (2 min)

Continued Reversal to 155’31 – 0831:40 (2 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’26 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 155’25 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’22 (below the 200 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot) – move up after the hovering.

Notes: Strange muted and unsustained reaction…possibly due to lighter volume on a December Friday.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9.17.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9_17_2015 ZB 12-15 (Second) 9_17_2015

9/17/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 152’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 152’27 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 152’05 – 1401:18 (2 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 153’10 – 1407 (7 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 152’23 – 1408 (8 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 153’15 – 1440 (40 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 152’29 – 1501 (61 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 151’31 (in between the OOD / LOD)
Short entry – 152’26 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 152’26 (Short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 152’05 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’10 (in between the 50 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: FOMC decided to wait to raise rates again. The short entry would have filled if 152’26 or lower. Otherwise, notice the hovering above the R2 Mid Pivot for 15 sec and manually move the order lower 2-3 ticks for a fill.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.28.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_28_2015

10/28/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 157’21 – shift 3 ticks lower to 157’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 157’08 – 1400:18 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’23 – 1401:49 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Pullback to 157’11 – 1404 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 157’25 – 1405 (5 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 157’12 – 1411 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 158’07 – 1431 (31 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 157’10 (in between the LOD / S3 Pivot) / 157’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 157’26 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’04 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 157’10 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 157’22 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’21 (on the 200 SMA)

Notes: As expected FOMC decided to wait to raise rates again to December. The inner long entry would have filled nicely then reversed to allow up to 12 ticks.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_16_2015 ZB 03-16 (Second) 12_16_2015

12/16/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 154’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’28 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’10 – 1400:12 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Pullback to 153’19 – 1400:30 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’17 – 1402:04 (3 min)
)))30 ticks

)))Pullback to 154’05 – 1402:26 (3 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Reversal to 154’25 – 1404 (4 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 154’05 – 1407 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 155’12 – 1431 (31 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 153’29 – 1537 (97 min)
47 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 153’22 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 154’261 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 153’22 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 154’16 – 26 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’06 (just above the SMAs) and 154’21 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: As expected FOMC rose interest rates 25BP. This caused the a perfect setup with a nice reversal after the long entry filled for about 15 ticks quickly and another 10 with patience. Many swings followed for other trades as it rode the 13 SMA support higher then reversed after about 30 min.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.11.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 062016

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9_11_2015

9/11/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 91.4
Actual: 85.7
Previous Revision: -1.0 to 91.9
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008299 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008307 – 1000:06 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008303 – 1000:14 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008295 – 1018 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008292 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008284 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008306 (on the high from 0902) / 0.008314 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.008306 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.008303 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008299 (on the 200 SMA / PP Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Inner short tier entry that allowed 3 ticks to be captured quickly and another 8 ticks with patience.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.16.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 062016

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_16_2015

10/16/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 88.8
Actual: 92.1
Previous Revision: +1.5 to 87.2
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008403
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008398 – 1000:10 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008402 – 1000:54 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008391 – 1006 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008401 – 1023 (23 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008397 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.008388 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008418 (just below the OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Just short of the inner tier long tier so cancel the order. Note the reversal bounce off of the LOD as a good trade.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.13.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 062016

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_13_2015

11/13/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 91.3
Actual: 93.1
Previous Revision: -2.1 to 90.0
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008150
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008141 – 1001:05 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008149 – 1003:13 (4 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008157 – 1016 (16 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008144 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008136 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008156 (just above the 200 SMA / OOD) / 0.008165 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The market would not have eclipsed the inner long entry until 55 sec after the report release so cancel. You could have still played the reversal as it hovered below the S1 Mid Pivot for about 20 sec indicating a reversal likely.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 12.11.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 062016

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 12_11_2015

12/11/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.3
Actual: 91.8
Previous Revision: -1.8 to 91.3
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008287
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008293 – 1000:22 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008282 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008264 – 1008 (8 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008281 (just above the 50 SMA) / 0.008273 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008292 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.008303 (just below the R3 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.008292 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.008282 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008281 (on the 50 SMA)

Notes: Nice inner tier fill and methodical reversal for 10 ticks or much more with patience. Notice that it was ending a long trend from 1 hr earlier that claimed 50 ticks so it was primed to go short.

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