6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/30/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 192K
Actual: 200K
Previous revision: -4K to 186K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008326 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008322 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008325 – 0815:43 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008320 – 0820 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008340 – 0852 (37 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008316 (on the LOD) / 0.008307 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008335 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008345 (in between the S1 Mid / S1 Pivots)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order on the dull move.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.4.2015

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.4.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_4_2015

11/4/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 183K
Actual: 182K
Previous revision: -10K to 190K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008257 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008248 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008253 – 0816:18 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008240 – 0843 (28 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.008245 – 0851 (36 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008249 (just below the S1 Pivot / 200 SMA) / 0.008239 (just below the S2 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008267 (on the HOD) / 0.008275 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.008249 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.008253 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008254 (on the 100 SMA) – move slightly lower

Notes: Inner long tier entry that allowed 3-4 ticks to be captured with ease as the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot were a strong barrier. Even though a matching report, still a decent reaction and 2nd peak.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 12_2_2015

12/2/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 191K
Actual: 217K
Previous revision: -10K to 190K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008122 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008108 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008117 – 0816:58 (2 min)
)))9 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008105 – 0901 (46 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008111 – 0907 (52 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008113 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008103 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008132 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008142 (just below the HOD)

Expected Fill: 0.008113 (inner long tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.008116 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008121 (just below the SMAs) – move lower

Notes: Inner long tier entry that allowed 3 ticks to be captured with ease as it reversed to the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016
Jan 102016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 193K
Actual: 257K
Previous revision: -6K to 211K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008460
1st Peak @ 0.008440 – 0815:03 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.008453 – 0815:51 (1 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.008447 – 0818 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008458 – 0824 (9 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008434 – 0856 (41 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008448 – 0922 (52 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008454 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.8441 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008441 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Switch to bracket routine, but still expect a big reversal at the R2 Pivot. It reversed all the way to the SMAs before falling for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016
Jan 102016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 193K
Actual: 257K
Previous revision: -6K to 211K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 10105.0
1st Peak @ 10126.0 – 0815:32 (1 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 10143.5 – 0823 (8 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 10119.0 – 0827 (12 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 10150.5 – 0832 (17 min)
91 ticks

Reversal to 10115.0 – 0846 (31 min)
71 ticks

Expected Fill: 10107.5 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 10125.0 – 35 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 10125.0 (on the 13 SMA)

Notes: Nice 2nd Peak on the 50 SMA and Final peak on the 100 SMA. Good reversal after the Final Peak.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.15.2015

 CPI  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.15.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_15_2015

10/15/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008467
1st Peak @ 0.008440 – 0831:24 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.008451 – 0834 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008425 – 0845 (15 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.008443 – 0859 (29 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008460 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008441 – 19 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008453 and/or 0.008442 (just below the R2 Mid / R1 Pivots)

Notes: Nice stable reaction that targeted the R1 Pivot. Then it used the 13 SMA as resistance for another 15 ticks on the 2nd peak to the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot area.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.17.2015

 CPI  Comments Off on 6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.17.2015
Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_17_2015

11/17/2015 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008117
1st Peak @ 0.008108 – 0831:26 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008114 – 0842 (12 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008104 – 0902 (32 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008118 – 0943 (73 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008113 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008109 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008104 (in between the S1 Pivot and LOD) – move higher

Notes: Small but stable reaction for a matching report to snatch up to 4 ticks. Notice how it reversed to the 13/20 SMAs then fell for a few more ticks to the S1 Pivot.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.15.2015

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.15.2015
Jan 102016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_15_2015

12/15/2015 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 154’31
1st Peak @ 155’02 – 0830:03 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 154’24 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Continued Reversal to 154’02 – 0907 (37 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 154’11 – 0918 (48 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’02 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’00 – 2 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’06 (at the 0821 high)

Notes: It popped up to barely fill then backed off slowly move the stop up to -3 ticks (50 SMA) and move the profit target down to breakeven. Then it fell dramatically, using the 13 SMA as resistance.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.8.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.8.2016
Jan 112016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_8_2016

1/8/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 203K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 292K
Previous Revision: +27K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
HEAD FAKE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’17
Head Fake to 155’23 – 0830:00
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 154’14 – 0830:02 (1 Min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 155’10 – 0830:57 (1 Min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 155’01 – 0834 (4 min)
9 ticks

Reversal t o155’18 – 0845 (15 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 155’05 – 0858 (28 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 155’23 – 0908 (38 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’20 (long) then stopped/reversed @155’08
Slippage: 0 ticks / 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 154’15 – net 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’23 and 154’10 (just below the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots)

Notes: Head Fake for 6 ticks before the true spike of 35 ticks. This is why we use the “Reverse if stopped” feature on this report. After stopped for a 12 tick loss (5 tick stop + 7 tick slippage, you would have been able to make up to 25 ticks on the following short move. After that it reversed strongly (as China and oil still overshadowed a strong report).

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.8.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.8.2016
Jan 112016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1_8_2016

1/8/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 203K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 292K
Previous Revision: +27K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 10036.0
1st Peak @ 10099.5 – 0830:56 (1 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 10073.5 – 0831:24 (2 min)
52 ticks

2nd Peak @ 10125.5 – 0836 (6 min)
179 ticks

Reversal to 10009.5 – 0908 (38 min)
232 ticks

Continued Reversal to 9895.5 – 1025 (115 min)
460 ticks

Expected Fill: 10045.0 (long)
Slippage: 8 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 10098.0 – 106 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 10092.0 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Nice 1st peak allowing over 100 ticks. 2nd peak hit the R2 Pivot and then reversed for the next several hours as China and oil weighed more heavily on the equities.

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