7/22/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.26M
Actual: 2.47M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.93M
Actual: -1.73M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.77M
Actual: 0.24M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 49.97
Head fake to 49.85 – 1029:59 (0 min)
12 ticks

1st Peak @ 50.49 – 1030:00 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 49.84 – 1030:33 (1 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 50.16 – 1037 (7 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 49.67 – 1041 (11 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 50.58 – 1056 (26 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 50.17 – 1110 (40 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: 49.87 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 50.05 – 17 tick loss (15 tick stop loss +2 ticks slippage)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Unfortunate head fake spoiled the trade. However the strong initial reversal is indication that big swings are likely. The test of the 200 SMAat 1037 and the test of the LOD at 1041 would have been good setups.

8/5/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.49M
Actual: -4.41M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.49M
Actual: 0.81M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.53M
Actual: 0.71M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 46.32
1st Peak @ 46.70 – 1032:00 (2 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 46.05 – 1041 (11 min)
65 ticks

Continued Reversal to 44.88 – 1205 (95 min)
182 ticks

Expected Fill: 46.42 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 46.69 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 46.62 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Even with a large draw on the crude, the market could not sustain a rally beyond the R2 Pivot and reversed strongly. It used the 12/20 SMAs as resistance and the 50 SMA in the middle of the drop.

8/19/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.78M
Actual: 2.62M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.61M
Actual: -2.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.33M
Actual: 0.59M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 42.62
1st Peak @ 42.16 – 1031:37 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 42.38 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 41.15 – 1137 (67 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 41.53 – 1207 (97 min)
38 ticks

Expected Fill: 42.48 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.17 – 31 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 42.06 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move higher

Notes: The large gain on oil caused a nice spike that turned into a downward fan and used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance for over an hour.

9/2/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.03M
Actual: 4.67M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -0.27M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.92M
Actual: 0.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 45.18
1st Peak @ 44.17 – 1032:22 (3 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 44.69 – 1037 (7 min)
52 ticks

2nd Peak @ 43.71 – 1058 (28 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 44.43 – 1113 (43 min)
72 ticks

Final Peak @ 43.21 – 1157 (87 min)
197 ticks

Reversal to 45.90 – 1328 (178 min)
269 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.05 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 44.18 – 87 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 44.60 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Large move due to the strong gain on crude. Great 2nd peak opportunity as it reversed to the 13 SMA at 1037

9/16/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.17M
Actual: -2.10M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.02M
Actual: 2.84M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.00M
Actual: 3.06M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 45.80
1st Peak @ 45.46 – 1030:00 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 45.86 – 1030:07 (1 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 45.42 – 1030:27 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 45.86 – 1031:49 (2 min)
44 ticks

Pullback to 45.52 – 1037 (7 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 47.35 – 1117 (47 min)
183 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.65 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 45.48 – 17 ticks (likely exit – 5 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.34 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strange reaction that fully reversed after 7 sec. It immediately peaked then hovered for 3 sec before the reversal, so exit with the trigger otherwise you would have been stopped out after 7 sec. After that it fell again 20 sec later then quickly reversed again. It eventually reversed into a long trend of almost 200 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot using the 13 SMA as support.