11/21/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 333K
Actual: 323K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.009913 (avg price position for last few min)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009905 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009913 – 0833:31 (4 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009901 – 0845 (15 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009916 – 0851 (21 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009900 (below the S3 Pivot with a 13 tick offset)
Short entry – 0.009926 (below the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately better than the forecast by 10k jobs, causing a relatively tame short spike that was halted at the S3 Pivot for 8 ticks as it also extended the LOD. The crossing of those 2 support barriers took a lot of the momentum out of the spike, but the form remained a good setup for the trap trade. When you see the impulse only reach the S3 Pivot, you can either cancel the order, or move the buy order up to about 0.009906 for a potential later fill. That would have filled up to 28 sec into the :31 bar, then given you an opportunity to exit with up to 7 ticks on the :34 bar. Very tame movement overall, but it still would be a safe opportunity. After the reversal, it fell again for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Then it rebounded for 15 ticks, back to the 50 SMA only 6 min later. Other US news broke at 0900 to cause a short reaction.

11/14/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 339K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.010008 (on the 200 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.010019 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.010011 – 0834:50 (5 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.010018 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009990 – 0924 (54 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009995 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 0.010021 (below the S2 Mid Pivot with no other barrier present)

Notes Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 8k jobs, causing a relatively tame long spike that most likely would have been just a couple ticks short of a fill. The crossing of all 3 major SMAs took a lot of the momentum out of the spike, but the form remained a good setup for the trap trade. When you see the impulse about 2 ticks short of the entry, you can either cancel the order, or move the bracket down to about 0.010017 for a potential later fill. That would have filled up to the end of the :31 bar, then given you an opportunity to exit with up to 6 ticks on the :34 bar. Very tame movement overall, but it still would be a safe opportunity. After the reversal, it pulled back for about 7 ticks then traded sideways until 0900. Then it fell for about 24 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs, the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD.

10/10/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 307K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010230
1st Peak @ 0.010248 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.010193 – 0901 (31 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 67k jobs due to the computer glitch resolution causing a large dump of applications from California and the government shutdown. This caused an unsustainable long spike of 18 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot on the :31 bar, leaving 9 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010238 with 4 ticks of slippage. The best exit would have presented itself 5-6 sec into the bar as it briefly hovered near the S1 Pivot before falling. Look for about 6-8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed methodically over the next 30 min for 55 ticks nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot.

9/19/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 309K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010102
1st Peak @ 0.010084 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.010092 – 0832 (2 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.010064 – 0919 (49 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.010078 – 0929 (59 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 22k jobs, but the computer glitch issue is still unresolved with 2 states data missing. This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that crossed the S2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 0.010096 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it would have fallen and hovered below the S2 Mid Pivot without a reversal for most of the bar. Look to exit around 0.010086 for about 10 ticks. After a quick and small reversal of only 8 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot, it continued to step lower for 20 more ticks in the next 45 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 10 min back to the 50 SMA.

9/5/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 332K
Actual: 323K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010019
1st Peak @ 0.010005 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.010035 – 0852 (22 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.010006 – 0924 (54 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 9k jobs, causing a short spike of 14 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010014 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it would have given a handful of ticks on a few occasions as it hovered near but could not go lower than the S1 Pivot. Look to exit near the S1 Pivot for about 7 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 30 ticks in the next 20 min to achieve a double top with the ADP spike from 0815 just short of the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back to nearly match the 1st peak low 30 min later to reach the S1 Pivot again.