US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.2.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 252013

10/2/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 177K
Actual: 166K
Previous revision: -17K to 159K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’09
1st Peak @ 133’21 – 0817 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 133’15 – 0819 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 133’24 – 0830 (15 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 133’09 – 0927 (72 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 11K jobs along with a sizeable 17K downward revision to the previous report. This caused a long reaction of 12 ticks, peaking on the :17 bar as it crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 133’15 with 3 ticks of slippage, then it would have hovered around the fill point for a few sec, before gaining 6 more ticks into the :17 bar. A profit target at 133’18, just above the R2 Pivot would have filled easily. After the peak, it fell 6 ticks in 2 min, before rallying for a 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks at the bottom of the hour to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it took about an hour to reverse 15 ticks back to the R1 Pivot.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.14.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 252013

11/14/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.76/2.6
Actual: 3.81/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 132’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’11 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’17 – 1320 (19 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’05 – 1354 (53 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 132’12 – 1413 (72 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’22 – 1529 (148 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month continuing the high rise since May as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to fall for 9 ticks as it started on the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 132’14 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 2 ticks at most on the initial burst. Given the rarity of 2nd peaks in the past few weeks, it would be safe to get out with a modest gain, and if you waited for the 2nd peak, the interpeak reversal would have taken you 3 ticks in the red as it hit the 50 SMA. After the reversal, it fell for 6 more ticks in about 30 min to reach the OOD. Then it commenced a slow developing reversal that achieved 7 ticks in 20 min, and 10 more ticks in about 80 min.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.13.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 242013

11/13/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.66/2.6
Actual: 2.75/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 131’28 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’00 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 131’26 – 1308 (7 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’01 – 1329 (28 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 131’28 – 1342 (41 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose off of the low last month. This caused the ZB to rally for a meager 4 ticks in 1 bar as it hit the HOD, then retreat back to where it started in a dull reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 131’29 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall shortly after 5 sec to hit the stop loss for a 3 tick hit. As is common in dull reactions on the 10-y, it reversed for 6 ticks to hit the 200 SMA, then rose again for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick 28 min after the initial results. Then it fell back to the 200 SMA briefly. Not much movement overall, but even with the dull reaction, it followed the trend of the past on the latter part of the reaction.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 9.12.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 062013

9/12/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 467.25
1st Peak @ 456.25 – 1202 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 465.00 – 1205 (5 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused an average short spike of 44 ticks over 2 bars, that started on the S2 Mid Pivot then crossed the 50 SMA and eclipsed the S3 Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have been filled short at about 465.25 with 3 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it fell to hover and chop between 464 and 458 as the S3 Pivot proved to be a strong support barrier. I would place a profit target in the 459 area or 457 area if you are patient. You would have been able to secure up to 30 ticks or so with ease. After the peak was achieved on the :02 bar, it quickly reversed for 35 ticks in 3 min up to the S2 Pivot, then it fell for a double bottom 30 min later. After the double bottom, it climbed back up to the S2 Pivot again.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 8.12.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 062013

8/12/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 447.25
1st Peak @ 467.75 – 1201 (1 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 452.00 – 1202 (2 min)
63 ticks

2nd Peak @ 469.25 – 1211 (11 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 456.25 – 1230 (30 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Report reaction caused a large long spike of 82 ticks over 1 bar, that started below the major SMAs on the S2 Pivot and crossed all SMAs and nearly reached the S3 Pivot. Unfortunately the spike came with abnormally high slippage, so we were not filled. With JOBB, you would have seen your 5 tick bracket get blown by the spike as it shot upward 40 ticks in less than 1 sec. Cancel the order after that. After the initial spike sustained most of the gain on the :01 bar, we saw a large quick reversal on the :02 bar for 63 ticks as it hit the S1 Mid Pivot, then it geared up for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in the next 10 min, eclipsing the R3 Pivot. After a handful of bars chopped sideways, the final reversal gave back 52 ticks in about 20 min, crossing the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot. Then it mellowed out and traded sideways.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.29.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 062013

10/29/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 75.2
Actual: 71.2
Previous revision: +0.5 to 80.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010214
1st Peak @ 0.010227 – 1001 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010210 – 1016 (16 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a large margin. This caused a 13 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was unsustainable, as it crossed the 200 SMA and S2 / S2 Mid Pivots. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.010222 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and fall instantly. Look to exit around 0.010220 with a 2 tick loss as it hovered on the 200 SMA. After the spike, it continued to chop between the 100 and 200 SMAs as it eventually achieved 17 ticks on the reversal to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it bounced off the pivot and conquered the 200 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 9.24.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 062013

9/24/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 79.9
Actual: 79.7
Previous revision: +0.3 to 81.8
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.010133
1st Peak @ 0.010136 – 1001 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.010144 – 1006 (6 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010133 – 1011 (11 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report narrowly missed the forecast but was effectively matching. The narrow offset caused a muted dull response of only 3 ticks on the :01 bar. With JOBB you would not have seen an impulse move to fill an order within 10-15 sec, so cancel the order. After achieving 3 ticks, it continued to slowly climb for 8 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it reversed for 11 ticks. After that, volatility and price action increased due to other circumstances.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.30.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 062013

7/30/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 81.1
Actual: 80.3
Previous revision: +0.8 to 82.1
DULL REACTION
Started @ 134’12
1st Peak @ 134’14 – 1003 (3 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 134’10 – 1006 (6 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast but remained at a high level. The narrow offset caused a muted dull response of only 2 ticks achieved in 3 min. With JOBB you would not have seen an impulse move to fill an order within 10 sec or the :01 and :02 bars, so cancel the order. After achieving 2 ticks which may or may not be due to the news, it matched the HOD and fell for 4 ticks in the next 3 bars. Then it continued to fall slowly for the next 3 hrs.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.27.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 062013

8/27/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 79.6
Actual: 81.5
Previous revision: +0.7 to 81.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010267
1st Peak @ 0.010256 – 1001 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010268 – 1004 (4 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010294 – 1029 (29 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a moderate margin and matched the highest reading in many years that was recorded in June. This caused a 11 tick short spike on the :01 bar that could not reach the 200 SMA / R1 Pivot area. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010262 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall quickly, retreat to about 4 ticks in the red, then fall and hover around 0.010258. Look to exit there for 3-5 ticks. After the spike, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 3 bars back to the 13 SMA. Then it chopped sideways for about 12 min before continuing to rally for an extended reversal of 38 ticks in about 15 min. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.30.2013

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 312013

10/30/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.06/2.5
Actual: 1.87/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 135’17 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’20 – 1303 (2 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 135’16 – 1315 (14 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.87 fell back to levels from the mid-summer now that the delay of tapering of QE3 is much more likely. With the FED meeting results being posted in the next hour, this report saw little reaction. This caused a slow dull long spike of 3 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar. With JOBB, you would have seen the :02 bar expire without a move, so cancel the order. There was little movement after that as it never ventured more than 3 ticks on either side of the origin before the FED meeting results were released.

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