US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/22/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.4M
Actual: -0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.75
1st Peak @ 95.27 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.37 – 1056 (26 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 95.19 – 1115 (45 min)
82 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching result on the crude, while gasoline saw a healthy gain. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit at record levels. The small change in crude, the large inventory, and the gains in gasoline drove the short move of 48 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 95.61 with 4 ticks of slippage. Look to exit in between the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot for about 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed back to the area of the 100/50 SMAs briefly, then continued to fall also due to the rising dollar on Chmn Bernanke’s testimony. It achieved a final peak of 90 more ticks 25 min later to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed back up for 82 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 20 min.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

FED Testimony Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/22/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.24
1st Peak @ 95.48 – 1002 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reverse to 95.28 – 1004 (4 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.99 – 1016 (16 min)
75 ticks

Reverse to 94.37 – 1056 (56 min)
162 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy before the Joint Economic Committee. Chmn Bernanke started out defended the QE3 policy and its effect on the economy, causing a rally on the CL for the first 15 min. Then he testified that several FED members were anxious about the scope and open ended nature of QE3, with scaling back commencing as early as the summer. This caused the dollar to rally and oil to reverse course. Trading with JOBB was discouraged in this case with Existing Home Sales breaking at the same time. After seeing the long reaction in the first 2 bars, look to buy on a retracement at about 95.30 at the S2 Mid Pivot, then keep an eye on the 13/20 SMAs, MACD, and the DX. It would be wise to exit after the :11 bar had 4 bars in a row with a sustained move, or just above the 200 SMA. After the 2nd peak eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot, it tumbled for 162 ticks in about 40 min as the tone turned hawkish.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

5/1/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 154K
Actual: 119K
Previous revision: -27K to 237K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010284
1st Peak @ 0.010298 – 0816 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.010286 – 0819 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010310 – 0826 (11 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.010277 – 0857 (42 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative showing 35k less jobs created than expected along with a fairly strong downward revision of 27k jobs causing a relatively small 14 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010288 with no slippage, then look to exit at about 0.010296 with 8 ticks as it hovered near the top of the bar. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 3 min, then it achieved a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks, eclipsing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD. Given the small 1st peak for the result, a 2nd peak is almost expected. After that it reversed for 43 ticks back to the 100 SMA in the next 30 min.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

4/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 203K
Actual: 158K
Previous revision: +39K to 237K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010699
1st Peak @ 0.010739 – 0816 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.010699 – 0822 (7 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative showing 45k less jobs created than expected, but offset by a strong upward revision of 39k jobs causing an unsustainable 40 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010705 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit with near the top with 30+ ticks at 5 sec into the bar before it slowly surrendered 24 ticks as the bar expired. After the peak, it reversed back to the 200 SMA at the origin, then climbed back up for a 2nd peak/double top 50 min after the report. It continued to rally for the following several hours, but not likely due to the report.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

3/6/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 172K
Actual: 198K
Previous revision: +23K to 215K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010705
1st Peak @ 0.010678 – 0816 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010701 – 0854 (39 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 26k more jobs created than expected along with a fairly strong upward revision of 23k jobs causing a 27 tick short spike on the :16 bar that started in the middle of all 3 major SMAs and bottomed on the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010701 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit with about 15 ticks as it hovered a few ticks above the bottom. After the peak and a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, it reversed for 23 ticks in 39 min, hitting the 200 SMA. After that it drifted lower.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

1/30/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 164K
Actual: 192K
Previous revision: -30K to 185K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010962
1st Peak @ 0.010944 – 0816 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.010969 – 0830 (15 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 28k more jobs created than expected , but a large downward revision of 30k jobs caused a brief 3 long tick move at the onset and an unsustainable spike of 18 ticks that left 10 ticks on the tail naked. It crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S3 Pivot, then bottomed 1 tick above the LOD and reversed quickly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010957 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit with about 10 ticks as it hovered near the bottom. After the unsustainable peak, it reversed for 25 ticks in 15 min, cut short by the Advance GDP report that broke at 0830.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1.3.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

1/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 134K
Actual: 215K
Previous revision: +30K to 148K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.011508
1st Peak @ 0.011485 – 0816 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.011531 – 0916 (61 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive showing 81k more jobs created than expected along with an upward correction of 30k jobs on the previous report resulting in a 23 tick spike on the :16 bar. It started on the 200 SMA then bottomed on the PP Pivot and reversed quickly leaving 10 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.011503 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit just above the PP Pivot where it hovered briefly for about 15 ticks. After reversing quickly on the :18 bar, it made a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, then reversed for a total of 46 ticks in about an hr to the R3 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 12.5.2012

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

12/5/2012 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 129K
Actual: 118K
Previous revision: -1K to 157K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.012177
1st Peak @ 0.012172 – 0818 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.012188 – 0906 (51 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative showing 11k less jobs created than expected resulting in a dull reaction of only 5 ticks over 3 bars as it hit the 100 / 50 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.012174 with no slippage. Recognizing the nearly matching results and the dull Impulse with strong support, look to exit at breakeven +/-1 tick. It traded sideways in a tight range for the next 30 min, then achieved a reversal of 16 ticks, crossing the S2 Pivot.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.13.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

5/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.5%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009826
1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0832 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.009845 – 0954 (84 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the markets with a match on the core reading, much better than expected regular reading, and a slight downward revision on the regular reading. This caused a short spike of 24 ticks on 2 bars that crossed the S1 Pivot and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009821 with 1 tick of slippage, then with no clear level of support present, look to exit when the bar expires for about 18 ticks. The next few bars hovered near the low, then it reversed for 43 ticks in about 80 min, eclipsing the PP Pivot.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.12.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

4/12/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 1.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010069
1st Peak @ 0.010090 – 0831 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.010070 – 0832 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010112 – 0857 (27 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.010086 – 0911 (41 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report strongly disappointed the markets on all fronts. This caused a long spike of 21 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs and peaked just above the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010074 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at the 200 SMA with about 12 ticks. Even with the strong news, crossing the SMAs was too strong to sustain, so it reversed on the next 2 bars to the origin. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 43 ticks in the next 25 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it fell for 26 ticks in 14 min to nearly reach the 100/200 SMAs.

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