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7/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual:55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.00
1st Peak @ 95.75 – 0401 (1 min)
75 ticks
Reversal to 95.10 – 0408 (8 min)
65 ticks
Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market had fallen about 60 ticks in the last 30 min and was starting to reverse prior to the report. Not needing much of a catalyst to spike long, the report delivered 75 ticks in the 0401 candle. Due to the rapid rise, this is a case for a retreat on the next candle. It gave back 65 ticks in the next 7 candles. The rise from 0420 to 0425 could have been a second peak, but the 12 min sideways action between 0408 and 0420 is unusual.