May 182013

CL 04-13 (1 Min)  2_21_2013

2/21/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.1
Actual: -12.5
Previous revision: n/a
Started @ 92.82
1st Peak @ 92.70 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.05 – 1009 (9 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with a delta of nearly 14, but this caused a much smaller than expected short spike of only 12 ticks that was unsustainable. The market had been selling off over the last 2 hours mostly due to disappointing jobless claims, and was likely oversold. The spike did not cross any SMAs or Pivots, but made a failed attempt to reach the LOD that was established just 10 min earlier. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 93.75 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it stayed stuck between 93.73 and 93.70, so close out with a few ticks. After the spike, it struggled to reverse through the 20 and 13 SMAs and eventually nicked the 50 SMA for 35 ticks 9 min after the report. After that, it attempted a 2nd peak, but came up short, then rebounded further.