May 052013

CL 05-13 (1 Min)  3_25_2013

3/25/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1315 EDT)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 94.03
1st Peak @ 94.14 – 1316 (1 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.90 – 1424 (69 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 94.50 – 1530 (135 min)
40 ticks

Notes:  FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the monetary policy and global economy, strongly defending the dovish policies of easing and historically low interest rates.  This caused a moderate weakening of the dollar and a corresponding rally in oil.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 94.10 with 2 ticks of slippage.  It initially hit the R1 Pivot at 94.13, where the 1st peak terminated, then it kept climbing for the next hour or so for 87 total ticks, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs except for 1 dip near the end of the move to the 50 SMA.  I chose to exit at the 100 SMA as I had to leave, but there were many better later exit points if you were patient, monitored the dollar, the SMAs, and the MACD.  You could have exited around the :46 bar when it hit the 200 SMA or on the dip through the 20 SMA and MACD crossing around 1410.  The market reversed for 40 ticks after the pit close culminating at 1530.