4/18/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7
Actual: 1.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 87.19
1st Peak @ 86.31 – 1006 (6 min)
88 ticks
Reversal to 87.64 – 1134 (94 min)
133 ticks
Notes: Report slightly fell short of the forecast with a delta of only 1.4, but this caused a much larger than expected short spike of 88 ticks on 6 bars to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. The market had been in a selling mood for about 90 min before the report, likely adding to the magnitude of the short reaction. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 87.13 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would be safe to stay in and watch how it handles the 87.04 area and the PP Pivot at 86.96, just below it. When the :02 bar blasted through both of those levels and sustained the drop, move the stop to above the PP and stay in until the move is finished. You could have stayed in to the S1 Mid Pivot and made up to 75 ticks. After the spike, it chopped higher fighting through many levels of resistance for 133 ticks in about 90 min.