-092012.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/20/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -4.1
Actual: -1.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.74
1st Peak @ 92.03 – 0402 (2 min)
29 ticks
2nd Peak @ 92.37 – 0407 (7 min)
63 ticks
Reversal to 91.86 – 0424 (24 min)
51 ticks
Notes: Report barely exceeded the forecast, and yet it drew a large spike and 2nd Peak. In contrast to last month with about the same forecast to actual offset, we got a large reaction instead of a dull one. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 91.80 with no slippage, then the safe approach would be to close out at the 200 SMA where it encountered resistance on the :01 bar. If you stayed in, the end of the :02 bar would have given you another 14 ticks after crossing all 3 SMAs. The next bar was flat before the 2nd peak yielded another 34 ticks in 4 bars. With a sharp rise of 63 ticks on a barely positive report, this would be a good opportunity to trade the reversal as it is overbought in the very short term. It initially dropped 30 ticks, then made another attempt to break through the 92.35 area. After failing, it fell for 51 ticks to eclipse the 200 and 100 SMAs.