5/2/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 43B
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 4.293
1st Peak @ 4.123 – 1033 (3 min)
170 ticks
Final Peak @ 4.037 – 1206 (96 min)
256 ticks
Reversal to 4.085 – 1231 (121 min)
48 ticks
Notes: Much larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a very large short spike of 170 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar after a brief struggle on the S3 Mid Pivot. This is the largest delta on the result that we have seen in quite some time. This triggered a downward fan that used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance for over 90 min as it kept stepping lower to a final peak of 256 ticks. The final reversal reclaimed 48 ticks in about 25 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.245 with nearly 40 ticks of slippage. Even with the high slippage, there would have been an easy opportunity to exit with 50 – 100 ticks.