May 312012

NG 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

5/31/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 71B
Started @ 2.421
1st Peak @ 2.436 / Reverse to 2.390 – 0431 (1 min)
15 ticks / -31 ticks

Reversal top at 2.440 – 0511 (41 min)
50 ticks

Notes: A nearly matching report caused indecision and a premature long spike of 15 ticks before seeing a drop of 31 ticks. After seeing the indecisive reaction and noting the near matching report, it would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. In this case, use the 200 as the floor of support and buy when it drops a few ticks under, then sell as it approaches or eclipse the 50 SMA. The long move at 0505 broke out of the report trend. If you sold at about 2.420 based on the peak earlier, use the PP Pivot at 2.428 as the stop loss setting and the pivot for a long move . When it broke long there, the market sentiment changed.