Sep 132012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 09.13.12

09/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0531 HI time / 1131 EDT)
Previous: 2.83/2.4
Actual: 2.90/2.7
Started @ 148’00 (0531)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0533 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0534 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 0630 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose minimally from the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. With less demand for the bonds, the yield rose, causing the ZB to spike long from sitting on the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’03. With the HOD established about 90 min earlier at 148’09, keep an eye on it as it approaches that threshold. As the :02 bar bounced off of 148’08 and the :03 bar garnered 1 more tick to touch the HOD, exit around 148’08 if possible for about 5 ticks. The resistance at 148’09 is strong as it caused the reversal nearly back to the 100 SMA. Then it oscillated between 148’01 and 148’06 for 30 min before trending higher. It hit a 2nd peak at 148’14 at the R2 Pivot right before the FED announced open ended QE3 which caused a nosedive. I did not list the final reversal due to the large move and lack of association to the auction.