Sep 052012

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 09.05.12

9/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -8.8K
Previous Revision: -2.3K to 11.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
Started @ 1.0170
1st Peak @ 1.0157 / Reversal to 10188 – 1531 (1 min)
-13 ticks / 18 ticks

Reversal Peak @ 1.0219 – 1607 (37 min)
49 ticks

Pullback to 1.0205 – 1722 (112 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Conflicted report that fell short of the forecast on the # of jobs created with a moderate downward revision to the previous report, but exceeded the forecast on drop in the unemployment rate. This caused an indecisive reaction moving short first for 13 ticks, then reversing long for 31 ticks from the bottom to net 18. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0161 with minimal ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it reverse upward and hit your stop loss at the 6 sec mark, if you had not closed out sooner. The opportunity was there to exit with less of a loss, but you had to be quick. Then after the market digested the bulk of the news, it rallied for a nice gain of 49 ticks over 30 min later, followed by a small slow reversal of 14 ticks that took about 45 min. The initial drop penetrated the S1 Pivot, then rebounded to cross all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot just above the origin. After struggling in that area for 3 bars, it continued long, pausing at the R1 and R2 Pivots as measurable resistance slowed the ascent. The top peak did not have a noticeable area of resistance, but the reversal briefly eclipsed the R2 Pivot as support.