Nov 072012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.07.12

11/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.7K
Previous Revision: +1.0K to 15.5K
Rate Forecast: 5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
Started @ 1.0362
1st Peak @ 1.0397 – 1434 (4 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0402 – 1527 (57 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0382 – 1606 (96 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0364 – 1814 (224 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Decently positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 0.1%, but better than the forecast, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a healthy long spike of 35 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0386 with 16 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it seesaw between 1.0371 and 1.0390. If you were filled on the spike above 1.0386, you would have been stopped out on the drop to 1.0371. On the following 3 bars, it reclaimed the level of the 1st peak and 1 more tick, then it surrendered 10 ticks before heading for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks about 1 hr later. I set my sell limit at 1.0394 (2 ticks below the 1st peak) and my order filled on the :32 bar for a 7 tick profit. The spike had to cross all 3 of the major SMAs while starting at the S1 Pivot, crossing the PP Pivot, and peaking at the R1 Pivot. After the 2nd peak, the reversal was able to reclaim 20 ticks in 40 min and 38 ticks to the S1 Pivot in a little less than 3 hrs.