May 072013

6E 03-13 (1 Min)  3_7_2013

3/7/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast:  0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Started @ 1.3027
1st Peak @ 1.3043 – 0746 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3007 – 0810 (25 min)
36 ticks

Notes:  The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50% and had little to say as the rates were released to move traders.  It was trading sideways above or on the SMAs in a tight fist before the news, then the long spike carried it 16 ticks to just below the HOD.  It quickly surrendered the gain and fell back to the origin by the :48 bar, then a total of 36 ticks in the next 25 min.  With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3032 with no slippage, then offered you a brief opportunity to take about 6-12 ticks on the :46 bar before it expired.   After the reversal ,it drifted sideways below the SMAs.  As the press conference broke, we saw a sharp move lower that quickly reversed into a long fan resulting in about 100 ticks net change.